Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen
In what promises to be an extremely competitive Middleweight showdown that could very well have future title shot implications, the unbeaten Jiu Jitsu black belt Demian Maia faces off with long-time veteran and powerful wrestler Chael Sonnen. Sonnen, back in UFC after stints with Bodog Fight and WEC, will be looking to ride the wave of momentum from his recent victory over Paolo Filho, but will have to make it through arguably the most dangerous grappler in UFC if he hopes to position himself for a future shot at Anderson Silva. Maia -275 / Sonnen +215
Sonnen, who trains at Matt Lindland’s Team Quest, is a decent striker and grappler with extremely good wrestling. Interestingly enough, though, it could be his wrestling that loses this fight for him. If Sonnen has displayed a glaring weak spot in his game over the years, it is his submission defense. He was submitted by Filho in their first meeting, by Babalu, twice by Jeremy Horn, and even triangle choked in the first round by a pre-Ultimate Fighter Forrest Griffin. Maia’s jiu jitsu is far better than any of those fighters, so if Sonnen decides to take Filho down he might be signing his own death certificate in this one. As odd as it seems for such a middling striker, Sonnen’s best chance is probably to keep this one on the feet and grind out a decision with jabs and straight punches to keep Maia at bay.
Of course, keeping a grappler of Maia’s abilities at bay is a lot easier said than done. While his opponents thusfar have been decidedly middle of the road, Maia’s grappling credentials are beyond repute, and he has definitely proven that he has what it takes to transfer his competitive success to Mixed Martial Arts. Sonnen is definitely a step up in competition for him, as his biggest win to date is over Jason McDonald. Obviously experience is going to play a factor in this fight, but from the perspective of Maia’s management, Sonnen is an ideal way for him to break into the upper crust of the Middleweight Division. A wrestler who likes to play top control and has poor submission defense, Sonnen is like a dream come true for Maia.
In the end, I see Maia’s stylistic advantage and vastly superior technique trumping Sonnen’s power and experience. Sonnen will control the fight for a while with takedowns and ground and pound, but there is only so long he can sit in Maia’s guard without paying the price.
Maia by submission, round 2.
