Welterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz vs. KJ Noons
Odds: (-215 Diaz / +175 Noons )
Betting Pick: Nick Diaz
In the main event of the evening, reigning Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz will defend his crown against KJ Noons, the last man to defeat him. In their first meeting, Noons turned Diaz’s face to mince meat with deadly accurate punching, but Diaz has won seven in a row since, had his facial structure surgically reconfigured, and moved up in weight, so it is curious to see whether Noons, who took time away from the sport before returning this year, will be able to replicate the dominant performance he turned in last time.
Noons, coming off a crushing TKO victory over UFC veteran Jorge Gurgel, showed the kind of boxing in that fight that makes him such a dangerous opponent for anyone. While he is a far cry from a well-rounded mixed martial artist, Noons is one of the best in the sport at what he does, and what he does is box effectively. His handspeed, accuracy, and punching power are all top-notch, a lesson Diaz learned the hard way in their first meeting. While Diaz has come a long way in the striking department since their first meeting, the edge almost has to go to Noons in any standup exchanges. The question is whether Noons’ ground game has grown at the same pace as Diaz’s striking and whether or not he will be able to stay out of trouble if Diaz decides to take the fight to the ground.
Diaz, for his part, has been on an absolute tear since dropping the first fight with Noons. Victimized by Noons’ blazing handspeed and falling victim to a number of the horrid cuts to which he was prone, Diaz took matters into his own hands and had a facial surgery to remove excess bone and scar tissue and make him less prone to being cut. He has always been one of the most dangerous submission artists in the sport, but in recent fights he has shown a vastly improved standup attack. His striking is not as technical or textbook as Noons’, but his odd angles and rapid-fire punching have proven extremely difficult for opponents to deal with. Still, standing and trading shots with Noons for that long is a risky proposition to put it mildly. It is obvious that Diaz is light years beyond Noons on the ground, the question is whether or not he will actually try to force the fight to the ground or if he will be content to yet again rely on his boxing to try and pull out a win.
Despite Noons’ dominant win in the first fight, I think the edge here has to go to Diaz. For one thing, he has addressed some of the issues that caused him issues in their first meeting, specifically his tendency to get badly cut. For another, his standup is on a whole different level than it was during their first fight. Most important, though, is the fact that Noons has nothing but boxing to rely on, whereas Diaz has a top-notch ground game. Diaz is known for engaging in reckless brawls, but I highly doubt he is going to allow Noons to box him around for five rounds. Eventually he will take this fight to the ground, and when he does it will be academic. Diaz by submission.
Fight Prediction: Nick Diaz via third round submission.
- KJ fans that think he can pull it off one more time can get back a good return with KJ Noons @+175 odds.
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