UFC Lightweight Title Bout: Ben Henderson vs. Gil Melendez
Odds: ( -325 Henderson / +250 Melendez )
Betting Pick: Melendez
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The main event of UFC on FOX 7 features a historic clash of the champions, as UFC Lightweight Champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson and Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez will square off to determine who the greatest 155 pounder in the world really is. Both of these guys have thrived against the best opponents in the world, and now they’re set to face their toughest challenge yet with millions of people watching live on network television. These are the two best Lightweights in the world duking it out in their prime, so this has all the makings of an instant classic.
Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez has been one of the top figures in the Lightweight division for years now, and is universally recognized as the best 155er outside of the UFC. Now, he’ll get a chance to see how his heavy-handed ground and pound, solid wrestling, and dangerous submissions stack up inside the Octagon. Melendez has never been finished in his career and his only loss since 2007 was to Josh Thomson in a narrow decision which he avenged twice. What makes Melendez is so dangerous is how complete a fighter he is. He has good hands, good wrestling, good jiu-jitsu, and an effective clinch game. Melendez isn’t just comfortable in any position, he is a threat to finish fights in any position.
Benson “Smooth” Henderson has firmly cemented himself atop UFC’s Lightweight division with back-to-back wins over Frankie Edgar and an utter destruction of Nate Diaz. Henderson is an impressive physical specimen who is adroit at tailoring his gameplan to exploit his opponents’ weaknesses. When he has to, Henderson can push the pace, let his hands go, and fight relentlessly for five rounds. He also has the ability to slow a fight down and use his strength to dictate pace and grind his opponents down, a strategy he employed masterfully against Diaz. Against Melendez, he will definitely be the stronger and better-conditioned fighter, so he just needs to avoid making any huge errors.
This is a tough fight to call since both guys are so accomplished and they have similarly well-rounded fighting styles. I don’t think there’s any question that Henderson is stronger and has better cardio, but I think Melendez is the more technical of the two fighters and is more dangerous in more positions. Some critics will point to Melendez’s lackluster performance in his rubber match against Josh Thomson, but I think that can be chalked up to his general disinterest in fighting for Strikeforce or facing Thomson again. I think his UFC debut and a shot at the gold will bring out a rejuvenated Melendez, who will surprise Henderson on the feet and prove tough to deal with if the fight goes to the ground. I think Melendez does enough to pick up the upset unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: Gilbert Melendez by Unanimous Decision.
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