UFC Welterweight Title Bout: Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz
Odds: ( -500 St-Pierre / +350 Diaz )
Betting Pick: St-Pierre
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In the main event of UFC 158, UFC Welterweight champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre will look to defend his title against Stockton, California’s Nick Diaz. St. Pierre is one of the most dominant champions in the history of the sport, but Diaz has grown into a feared finisher who can end fights with his difficult-to-defend, high-volume striking or with his submissions, which are devastating from every position. If Diaz wants to leave the Octagon with a UFC title, though, he is going to have to find a way to neutralize the dominant wrestling and top control that have made St. Pierre such a legend.
Nick Diaz has had a long career with a lot of ups and downs, but over the last few years he has firmly cemented himself as one of the world’s top Welterweights. Diaz was always one of the most prolific grapplers in the world at 170 pounds, but now he has grown into a dangerous striker as well. Diaz isn’t the hardest puncher in the world, but he makes up for it with ridiculous accuracy, hand speed, and footwork. Diaz slips a shot past his opponent’s guard, then another, then another, until they are overwhelmed by the sheer volume of rapid-fire punches headed toward them. Diaz’s biggest problem has always been dealing with wrestlers. His takedown defense is historically quite porous, and he struggles underneath dominant wrestlers with good submission defense. If he plans on capturing St. Pierre’s title, he is going to have to find a way to gameplan for St. Pierre’s outstanding top control.
Were it not for Anderson Silva, Georges St. Pierre would probably be considered the most dominant champion in the sport’s history and the world’s #1 pound-for-pound fighter. Early in his career, St. Pierre was a dominant, athletic fighter who could hurt opponents with his hands and feet as well as his wrestling. Since suffering a shocking upset loss at the hands of Matt Serra, though, St. Pierre has relied increasingly on his wrestling and top control to keep himself safe while dominating his opponents. Against Diaz, I don’t think there is any chance of St. Pierre engaging in a boxing match for any period of time. He will go with what has made him so successful and try to work over Diaz from top position without giving him a chance to get his striking game going.
There’s no question that Nick Diaz is a dangerous fighter who has the tools to finish his opponents standing and on the ground, but this is a nightmarish style matchup for him. The only opponents Diaz has consistently struggled against are dominant, physical wrestlers with good top control and submission defense. If there is a prototype for dominant, physical wrestlers with good top control and submission defense, it is Georges St. Pierre. I don’t see a way for Diaz to keep St. Pierre from taking him down and controlling the action. His only hope is to capitalize on a mistake off his back and secure a submission. As good as St. Pierre’s jiu-jitsu is, I don’t see it happening. More likely St. Pierre will use his superior strength and wrestling to force Diaz into disadvantageous positions en route to a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Georges St-Pierre by Unanimous Decision.
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