UFC Featherweight Title Bout: Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar
Odds: ( -210 Aldo / +170 Edgar )
Betting Pick: Aldo
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In the main event of UFC 156, former UFC Lightweight champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar will challenge UFC Featherweight champion Jose “Scarface” Aldo. Edgar, despite being undersized at Lightweight, cemented himself as a top figure with two impressive wins over BJ Penn before dropping two controversial decisions to current UFC Lightweight champion Benson Henderson. The entire fight world is curious to see how Edgar performs at his more natural weight of 145, but if he wants to capture a belt in a second division he is going to have to find an answer for Aldo’s devastating striking and notoriously tough takedown defense.
Frankie “The Answer” Edgar was clearly one of the best Lightweights in the world, so seeing him perform at his natural weight is an exciting prospect. He cemented himself as champion by using his footwork, hand speed, and boxing to totally overwhelm former champion BJ Penn. What makes Edgar so dangerous is that he is very difficult to outbox, but he also has dominant wrestling and a smothering top game to back it up. The only opponents who have really managed to figure Edgar out are guys capable of outwrestling him who also have decent enough boxing to hang on their feet. Against Aldo, it is never the best idea to stand and try to trade with him. If Edgar wants to join Penn and Randy Couture in the two-division champion’s club, he is going to have to use his boxing to set up takedowns and try to work Aldo over from top position.
Jose “Scarface” Aldo has clearly established himself as the world’s premier Featherweight. A devastating striker, Aldo can crush opponents with his hands, knees, or feet. What makes him so scary, though, is how hard it is to take him down and control him. Aldo forces opponents to fight him on his terms and then tears them apart with precision striking and ruthless aggression. Against Edgar, the most important thing for Aldo is to stay off his back. He is probably going to be giving up a bit of size to Edgar, and it would be unwise for him to get stuck underneath a wrestler of Edgar’s caliber. Aldo has the speed and striking to retain his belt, but it is imperative that he take Edgar’s strengths away if he wants a win here.
This is a tough fight to call for a variety of reasons. Both of these guys are accomplished strikers, and it remains to be seen whether Aldo’s aggression and accuracy can triumph over Edgar’s slick, technical boxing. Furthermore, it’s always hard to guess how a fighter will perform at a new weight class. Logic suggests that Edgar is a natural at 145 and should be even more dominant without a size disadvantage, but he is jumping right into the deep end of the Featherweight division. Ultimately, I think Edgar will be surprised by how tough it is to get Aldo down and, in the meantime, will find himself being outstruck handily. His size disadvantage is often discussed, but it was made up for by superior speed. At 145, he is no longer going to be the fastest guy in the Octagon, and he might find himself getting beaten to the punch. Both of these guys are tough, so I see this lasting through the championship rounds, but I think Aldo should be able to score enough points to retain his title via unanimous decision.
Prediction: Jose Aldo by Unanimous Decision.
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