UFC Welterweight Bout: Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva
Odds: ( +105 Fitch / -135 Silva )
Betting Pick: Fitch
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In a featured Welterweight matchup, rising star Erick “Indio” Silva faces his toughest challenge yet in the form of perennial top contender Jon Fitch. Silva is a very well-rounded fighter with dangerous submissions and solid punching who has only suffered one legitimate loss as a professional. His other loss, a DQ against Carlo Prater, came in a fight he was clearly in control of. Fitch, while not the most exciting or well-liked fighter in the UFC Welterweight division, is nevertheless a master of imposing his will on opponents and grinding them down for decision victories. If Silva wants to keep progressing toward a future title shot, he is going to have to find a way to survive Fitch’s grinding style and survive a drawn-out, grueling fight.
Erick Silva, a Team Nogueira product, is a very versatile fighter who is dangerous both standing and on the ground. He isn’t the most devastating puncher in the division, but he does have some knockout power to go along with very good hand speed and technique on the feet. His submissions are very good from a variety of positions, and he showed against Charlie Brenneman that he has plenty of ability to get out of bad positions on the ground as well. Against Fitch, that might be his most important attribute. Silva clearly has a better submission game, but I find it highly unlikely he will be able to take Fitch down, which means that if this fight hits the mat Silva will be underneath Fitch, who is notoriously hard to shake off. Silva is going to have to try to use his footwork and speed to stick and move on the feet, not allowing Fitch to push him up against the cage, clinch, and wear him down steadily if he wants to win this fight.
Jon Fitch’s fighting style is not one that tends to excite fans, but there is no denying that it is effective. Despite a shocking 12-second knockout loss in his last fight, Fitch has been one of the Welterweight division’s most consistent performers over the last few years, using his clinch game and dirty boxing to neutralize opponents and grind out one-sided decision wins. One reason Fitch has been so successful is that instead of trying to counter his opponents, he sticks to his own game plan and never deviates from it. He will do the same against Silva, trying to clinch up on the feet, use the cage to keep Silva locked in place, and bruise him up on the inside while he controls position.
I don’t think this is a particularly good style matchup for Silva. He lacks the kind of one-punch power that allowed Johny Hendricks to score a huge upset win, and he doesn’t have dominant wrestling that would allow him to put Fitch in a disadvantageous position. I think this one will play out like most of Fitch’s fights, with Fitch taking few chances, controlling Silva against the cage, and scoring enough points for a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Jon Fitch by Unanimous Decision.
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