Strikeforce Lightweight Title Fight: Gilbert Melendez vs. Josh Thomson
Odds: (-600 Melendez / +400 Thomson )
Betting Pick: Melendez
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In the semi-main event, Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez will look to defend his belt against long-time rival Josh Thompson in a deciding rubber match. These two have met twice before, with Thomson winning the first meeting and Melendez avenging the loss in their last bout. Fight fans have been clamoring to see Melendez prove his worth against UFC’s packed Lightweight division for well over a year now, and Thomson seems like the last fight left for him in Strikeforce. A win here will probably result in Melendez getting a shot at unifying the Strikeforce and UFC titles, but you know that Thomson would love to play spoiler, and he’s already proven that he has the tools necessary to upset Melendez. These guys are both top 10 level Lightweights and there is a lot riding on this fight, so it should be very entertaining.
Josh “The Punk” Thomson is easily one of the most effective and stifling Lightweight grapplers in the world. Thomson is experienced, well-rounded, and notoriously tough, having only been finished once in his professional career, all the way back in 2004 by Yves Edwards. Thomson’s standup is not his best attribute, but he has solid technique and decent punching power. There is no question that Thomson’s best work is done on the ground. He is a very effective wrestler with dominating top control and very good submissions as well. Unfortunately, Melendez has grown into one of the division’s premier grapplers, a lesson Thomson learned the hard way in their last meeting, where he was unable to force Melendez to the ground and outboxed fairly easily. If he wants to avoid losing the best of three series, Thomson is going to have to find a way to mix his takedowns in with his striking much more effectively, so that he can try to control Melendez from on top. If he has to box with Melendez for extended periods or work off his back, he is in for a very long night.
Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez has firmly cemented himself as the world’s best Lightweight outside of the UFC. Since losing his first fight against Thomson in 2008, Melendez has rattled off six straight wins and avenged both of his career losses. What makes Melendez so scary is his ability to dominate opponents wherever a fight goes. He is a supremely talented grappler, although he rarely wins by submission. He is very skilled at keeping wrestlers from taking him down by using his grappling defensively and just as good at forcing strikers onto their backs where he is out of danger. There are no real holes in Melendez’s game, which means that he can force fights wherever his opponents are least comfortable. Against Thomson, that will definitely mean he will try to keep this fight standing, where he will enjoy a sizable advantage in both technique and punching power.
In their last fight, Melendez completely nullified Thomson’s grappling and beat him up in the striking exchanges, and I don’t see any reason to expect this fight to go differently. Thomson is still a top Lightweight capable of beating many of the top fighters in the division, but Melendez is the worst possible style matchup for him. “El Nino” can take away Thomson’s best tool, outpoint him on the feet easily, and if worse comes to worse he is capable of hanging with or even beating Thomson on the ground. I don’t think anything about this fight is really in Thomson’s favor, and I expect Melendez to grind out a one-sided unanimous decision victory to retain his title.
Prediction: Gilbert Melendez by Unanimous Decision.
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