Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks Prediction

UFC Welterweight bout:  Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

Odds:  (+100 Koscheck / -130 Hendricks )

Betting Pick:  Koscheck

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In the semi-main event, long-time top contender Josh “Kos” Koscheck will look to halt the momentum of surging young star Johny Hendricks. According to UFC president Dana White, a win for Hendricks means a shot at the UFC Welterweight Title, but getting through a fighter like Koscheck is a long way from a foregone conclusion.  Hendricks proved against Koscheck’s teammate Jon Fitch that he has the kind of punching power to floor anyone in the division, but Koscheck is one of the most effective wrestlers in the sport and has formidable punching power of his own, so this is going to be a really tough test for Hendricks.  It seems unlikely that he will catch Koscheck as early in the fight as he caught Fitch, so he will have to prove that he can handle an aggressive wrestler for an extended period of time, something that remains in question following his sole career loss to Rick “Horror” Story.

Josh Koscheck, after appearing in the finals of the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter, has carved out a niche for himself as one of UFC’s most dangerous Welterweights.  Although he has fallen short in his two shots at Georges St. Pierre’s title, he has firmly entrenched himself at the top of the division, and any road to the title is probably going to have to go through him.  From the get go, Koscheck was a dominant wrestler with a smothering top game, but he has steadily grown as a kickboxer over the course of his UFC career and is now regarded as a dangerous striker as well.  He has good punches and kicks and a very solid chin, but he is still most effective when he works for double legs, gets on top of his opponents, and wears them down while totally nullifying their offense.  Against Hendricks, who has dynamite in his hands, Koscheck would be well served to stick to his bread and butter instead of trying to show off his striking too much.  It’s not that Koscheck isn’t capable of standing with Hendricks, because he very well might be, but his wrestling is an a whole different level and he would be foolish not to press such a sizable advantage.

Johny Hendricks is one of the Welterweight division’s fastest-rising stars, but in many ways Koscheck represents a sizable step up in competition for him.  Hendricks looked phenomenal in dropping Jon Fitch in a mere 12 seconds, but you can’t count on him winning many fights against top competitors that fast, and Koscheck is going to be able to test his readiness to compete at the highest level in a variety of ways.  The only loss of Hendricks’ career came at the hands of Rick Story, who was able to use his wrestling to keep Hendricks from teeing off with his powerful punching.  When it comes to pure wrestling, anything Story can do, Koscheck can do better, so Hendricks is going to have to show a very complete game if he wants to avoid getting planted on his back repeatedly and having his best weapons taken away from him.  Even on the feet, Koscheck has more than enough power to end a fight, so while Hendricks has a distinct advantage in that area he is still going to have to fight smart and not go into headhunter mode if he wants to avoid getting caught himself.

This is going to be a great test of just how ready Hendricks is for main event level fights.  There is no question that Hendricks has enough power in his hands to finish anyone foolish enough to let him start landing power punches, but Koscheck has a solid chin and world class wrestling which are going to give Hendricks a lot of problems. It would be wrong to call his win over Fitch a fluke, because he has proven time and again that he has fight ending punching power and great boxing technique, but the speed with which he floored Fitch is not something he can count on happening often.  It seems to be a given that Koscheck is going to give Hendricks the toughest test of his relatively young career, and I’m just not sure that he is going to be able to handle the pressure, both literally and figuratively. Hendricks has never had to fight with this much at stake before, and he has never faced an opponent besides Fitch with the toolset to completely neutralize him if things start to go poorly.  I think Hendricks is going to wilt under the pressure of Koscheck’s constant, effective takedowns, and find it difficult to really work his game much.  I don’t see Koscheck finishing this on the ground, but he should be able to take Hendricks down, neutralize his offense, and control pace and position well enough to earn the unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Josh Koscheck by Unanimous Decision.

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