UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Mauricio Shogun Rua vs. Dan Henderson
Odds: (-115 Rua /-115 Henderson )
Betting Pick: Henderson
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The main event of the evening features two PRIDE legends meeting for the first time in the UFC as former two-division PRIDE champion Dan “Hollywood” Henderson makes his octagon return against former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. These were two of PRIDE’s best 205 pounders, but their paths have never crossed until now. Both of these guys have a lot of knockout power in their hands, but this is a great style match up in that Shogun is the more technical and aggressive striker while Henderson brings dominant wrestling to the table that Shogun can’t match. One important question is who will be able to control the clinch. Henderson’s Greco Roman background and Shogun’s dominant Muay Thai make them both particularly effective from that position, so whoever can establish their game and use the clinch to control the pace of the fight will probably wind up the winner.
Dan “Hollywood” Henderson is a true legend of the sport who has won six of his last seven fights against stellar competition. A former Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion in PRIDE, Henderson has consistently fought the best in the world in two weight classes for years now. At this point in his career, 205 pounds seems like a much more natural weight for him and he seems to perform much better without the significant weight cut. Henderson is an extremely dangerous fighter, with some of the most devastating power punching in the sport and world-class wrestling to back it up. Henderson has great take downs and is a dominant force in the clinch,using it to control position, land strikes, and set up trips. Against Shogun he is going to need to rely more heavily on his wrestling than he usually does, because Shogun is the faster, more technical, and more accurate boxer. If Henderson wants a win in his return to the UFC he is going to have to find a way to ground Shogun and wear him out with ground and pound, because chances are he will be out boxed and beaten to the punch consistently.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is one of the most devastating strikers in the Light Heavyweight division. A former UFC champion who made his name destroying people in PRIDE,Shogun is an extremely fast, technical, and accurate boxer who also has great kicks and a destructive attack from the Muay Thai clinch. His jiu-jitsu is actually quite underrated,but against Henderson that probably won’t matter much since he will want to avoid the ground if he can. On the feet Rua is faster and way more technical, and should be able to beat Henderson to the punch, so he will want to exploit his striking advantage as much as he possibly can. As long as Shogun can keep distance and make this a boxing match, he has the skills to take Henderson apart. Shogun is adept in the clinch,but even so, he might want to avoid giving Henderson a chance to wear him down with wrestling and try to maintain his range as much as possible.
This is going to be a very competitive fight. Both of these guys have the kind of power that ends fights with one shot, so anything could happen. The question is whether Shogun’s aggressiveness and superior striking technique will be able to trump Henderson’s ability to neutralize the action with the clinch and force the fight to the ground. Ultimately, I think this is a bad match up for Rua. He is a great boxer, but he is going to have be wary of Henderson’s looping power punches, and Henderson’s Greco Roman wrestling is going to neutralize one of Rua’s best weapons, the Muay Thai clinch. Henderson has the perfect style to neutralize Shogun’s brutal attack, and I think he will earn the unanimous decision by grounding Shogun, scoring points on the ground, and taking Rua off his game.
Prediction: Dan “Hollywood” Henderson via Unanimous Decision.
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