UFC Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Mirko Cro Cop
Odds: (-250 Nelson /+195 Cro Cop )
Betting Pick: Nelson
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In a featured Heavyweight bout, PRIDE legend Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic will face off with well-rounded IFL veteran Roy “Big Country” Nelson. There was a time when Cro Cop struck fear into the hearts of every man he faced, but his best days seem like a distant memory at this point. He is still a solid technical striker, but the power and ruthlessness that made him such a nightmare in his prime are long gone, and he has looked completely overwhelmed in his last few fights. Nelson isn’t much to look at, but his excess body fat hides a surprisingly dangerous and complete fighting game, so Cro Cop is really going to need to show a lot of his old form if he wants to avoid a third straight loss and possible retirement.
Mirko Cro Cop, at his prime, was one of the most feared Heavyweights in the world. He destroyed his opponents in violent fashion, using sprawl and brawl tactics to keep fights standing and then overwhelming them with punches and kicks. He always had power in his hands, but his kicks were one of the most devastating tools in the entire sport. He famously summed it up with the phrase, “Right leg hospital, left leg cemetery.” Now, though, Cro Cop has lost more than a few steps. His striking power is a fraction of what it once was, he is substantially slower, and he no longer has the ruthless offense he once used to protect his always-fragile chin. He is still technically solid, but with no ground game to speak of, not much in the way of knockout power, and a glass jaw, he is not a real threat to beat a complete Mixed Martial Artist at this point.
Roy Nelson, who gained fame in the now-defunct IFL, breezed through The Ultimate Fighter and into the UFC. On first glance, Nelson does not look like a world-class athlete, but he is surprisingly spry for a man of his girth, he has great technique both standing on the ground, and he has found ways to make his bulk work for him, trapping his opponents in bottom position on the ground and smothering them while working them over with ground and pound and trying for submissions. Nelson’s jiu-jitsu from the top is excellent, his positional control is hard to overcome, and he has one-punch knockout power on the feet. His cardio is surprisingly good for a guy his size, but he is still toting around a lot of weight, and if this fight goes into the later rounds he might find himself wearing out pretty badly, so he will want to be aggressive and capitalize on an aging Cro Cop’s weakness before that becomes an issue.
Cro Cop is a ghost of his former self, and I don’t really see a way for him to win this. Nelson has a solid chin, and at this point is probably the better striker of the two. There is absolutely no question that Nelson can take Cro Cop down at this point, and on the ground this is as one-sided as it could be. I think Nelson will land some punches, take Cro Cop down, and submit him fairly easily.
Prediction: Roy “Big Country” Nelson via second round arm-triangle choke.
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