265 lbs.: Antonio Minotauro Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez
Odds: (Nogueira +105 / Velasquez -135) at Sportsbook.com
In the main event, former PRIDE FC Heavyweight Champion and UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will face undefeated powerhouse wrestler Cain Velasquez with a likely shot at an Interim Heavyweight Title on the line. Nogueira is one of the most legendary Heavyweights in the sport’s history, but Velasquez has looked completely unstoppable thusfar in his career, so this has the makings of an incredible fight.
Velasquez, a Junior College national wrestling champion and two-time Division 1 All-American, is one of the most dynamic and explosive wrestlers in the Heavyweight division. In his last fight, against highly-regarded opponent Ben Rothwell, Velasquez put on a clinic, taking down Rothwell at will and unloading vicious ground and pound on him. In the standup game, Velasquez is still somewhat raw, but makes up for his lack of technique with a surplus of knockout power. The big question mark for Velasquez going into this fight is his submission defense, which has never really been tested. Nogueira is one of the most prolific submission experts in the sport’s history, so Velasquez needs to make sure that his submission defense is on point if he wants to keep his record unblemished.
Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera is, inarguably, one of the greatest Heavyweights in the history of the sport. A submission wizard with a very effective technical boxing game and a legendary ability to take a beating and still pull out wins, Noguiera has fought better opposition than any Heavyweight in history, and has still amassed a very favorable record. After a disappointing KO loss to Frank Mir, the first in his career, Noguiera rebounded instantly, laying a beatdown on UFC Hall of Famer Randy Couture in a shockingly one-sided fight. Against Velasquez, Noguiera will probably have an advantage in terms of technical boxing, but will be totally overmatched in punching power. He is clearly the superior submission fighter of the two, but Velasquez has unstoppable takedowns and is vicious from top position, and Nogueira is getting too old to keep taking the kinds of beatings he used to, as Frank Mir showed.
This is a ridiculously close fight on paper, a fact that is borne out by the betting lines. Noguiera has the huge edge in experience and level of competition, and possesses the kind of jiu-jitsu that can catch anyone, much less a novice like Velasquez. On the other hand, despite the ridiculous level of competition he has faced, Noguiera has never fought a wrestler of Velasquez’s caliber, or anything close to it. If I had to choose with a gun to my head, I would say that Velasquez’s power and wrestling will be enough to bruise Noguiera up on the ground.
Prediction: Cain Velasquez via third round ground & pound T/KO.
- That said, at Sportsbook.com Odds, Noguiera is actually a (+105) underdog, and considering his submission skills and Velasquez’s relative inexperience in that realm, those are odds that I would not pass up, at all. All things being even I’d take Velasquez, but any time you can bet on one of the two greatest Heavyweights of all time as an underdog, you do it, so hit up Sportsbook.com Is one of a few sites that actually have Nogueira as an Underdog.
If you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds. They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…
