UFC Middleweight bout: Chael Sonnen vs. Brain Stann
Odds: (-275 Sonnen /+215 Stann )
Betting Pick: Sonnen
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In a featured Middleweight matchup, former title challenger Chael Sonnen will return to action following his steroids suspension against heavy-handed veteran Brian “All American” Stann. Sonnen has proven time and again that he is the Middleweight division’s best wrestler, while Stann has knockout power in both hands, so this is a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Sonnen isn’t useless on his feet, but if this fight stays standing Stann will eventually tag him with huge power punches, whereas Sonnen will easily dominate if he can secure takedowns.
Brian “All American” Stann is a very tough veteran with a surplus of knockout power in his hands. He isn’t a terrible grappler, and actually has fairly decent wrestling, but his gameplan will be to keep this fight standing and try to land haymakers, because he has zero chance of outwrestling Sonnen. If he gets taken down, there is no way he is escaping from underneath Sonnen, so he is going to have to land hard early and watch out for takedowns constantly.
Chael Sonnen’s gameplan is just as easy to predict as Stann’s: he will shoot for takedowns early and often and try to wear Stann out from top position. He has fought basically every opponent he has ever faced with that same gameplan, and not one of them has ever been able to stop him from taking them down. The only opponents who have survived Sonnen’s wrestling are the ones who could submit him from off their back. Stann does have some submissions off his back, but he isn’t accustomed to being underneath dominant wrestlers and his jiu-jitsu isn’t as good as Paulo Filho or Anderson Silva’s. As long as Sonnen can secure takedowns, which he will probably be able to do, he will be in a great position to win this fight.
I don’t think Stann has any answer for Sonnen’s wrestling. Sonnen will take him down at will and utterly dominate him from top position. Stann is a tough guy and Sonnen has been out for a while, so this one will probably go to the judges, but Sonnen should easily control all three rounds for the one-sided decision win.
Prediction: Chael Sonnen via Unanimous Decision.
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