UFC Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck
Odds: (+350 Hughes /-500 Koscheck )
Betting Pick: Koscheck
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In the semi-main event, former Welterweight champion and future hall of famer Matt Hughes will face an extremely tough test in younger, fresher wrestler Josh Koscheck. Matt Hughes was once the most dominant Welterweight on the planet, and even as his career winds down he is still an effective wrestler with underrated submissions and technically sound boxing. Koscheck represents a huge challenge for him though, in that he is a superior striker, substantially younger and in a better place physically, and has the kind of wrestling to stymie Hughes’ offense. It is good to see Hughes still testing himself this late in his career, but he is going to need to show his old form if he wants to actually make this fight competitive.
Matt Hughes is a lock for the UFC Hall of Fame, and for years he defined what it meant to be a dominant champion. His best days are well behind him, but he is still a technically outstanding wrestler with a very good ground game and solid technique on the feet. That said, Hughes doesn’t want to engage in any standup fights with anyone, including Josh Koscheck. His game plan will be the one that made him such a legendary champion to begin with, and he will do his best to outwrestle Koscheck, control him from top position, and put the hurt on him with ground and pound. Whether or not he still has it in him to execute that game plan against a wrestler like Koscheck remains to be seen.
Josh “Kos” Koscheck was a dominant force on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter, and has carved out a very successful UFC career for himself. He has always been a dominant wrestler, but as his career has developed he has actually turned into a very effective kickboxer as well. Koscheck is a very dangerous young fighter who uses his versatility to impose his will on his opponents. The only time he tends to struggle is when his opponents outwrestle him. He gets frustrated and has trouble dealing with being put in disadvantageous positions. Against Hughes he will enjoy a sizable striking advantage, so he will be able to just use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing.
At this point, I don’t see a way for Hughes to beat Koscheck. Hughes’ bread and butter is his wrestling, but at this stage of their careers Koscheck is probably the better wrestler, and he is clearly more dangerous on the feet. If Hughes can’t get this fight to the ground reliably he is going to get boxed around on the feet, and I think Koscheck is the one who will be dictating position. I think Koscheck will land punches consistently and confound Hughes en route to a unanimous decision.
Prediction: Josh Koscheck via Unanimous Decision.
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