Strikeforce HW GP Semi-Final bout: Josh Barnett vs. Sergei Kharitonov
Odds: ( -350 Barnett / +275 Kharitonov )
Betting Pick: Barnett
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In the main event of the evening, versatile Russian Sergei Kharitonov will square off against former UFC Heavyweight champion Josh Barnett in the second of two Grand Prix semifinal matchups. Kharitonov looked great in his last fight, destroying another former UFC champion in Andrei Arlovski with first round strikes, but Barnett is the bigger fighter and one of the Heavyweight division’s most versatile and dynamic fighters. Kharitonov is also well-rounded, but if he wants to advance to the Grand Prix final he is going to need to find a way to dictate the pace against Barnett and prevent Barnett from getting comfortable with his own game.
Sergei Kharitonov made a name for himself in PRIDE, and has continued to be a very solid Heavyweight contender in DREAM, K-1 Hero’s, and Strikeforce. Kharitonov is a dangerous finisher, with technical and powerful boxing to go along with very effective submissions. He is a threat to finish fights both standing and on the ground, and puts his game together very well. He isn’t a world-class wrestler, but he does have serviceable takedowns and a solid clinch game. Against Barnett, though, he is going to need a career performance, because Barnett is just as versatile, much larger and stronger, more experienced, and a far better wrestler. Barnett’s chin can be exploited and his ground game is one of the best in the Heavyweight division, so Kharitonov is going to want to try to be aggressive in the standup to put Barnett on his heels and keep him from scoring easy takedowns if he wants to pull off the upset.
Josh Barnett is one of the most dangerous and versatile Heavyweights in the world. He is a very skilled striker with knockout power in his hands, solid wrestling, and extremely good submissions from top position. Barnett’s career was somewhat derailed by a pair of high-profile positive tests for performance enhancing substances, but from a technical standpoint he is a good matchup against almost anyone in the division. The only real hole in his game is his cardio conditioning, which isn’t top notch, but he is still in deceptively good shape for someone who looks as flabby as he does. Barnett is a heavy favorite in this fight, and for good reason, but he needs to be careful and not get overconfident, especially on his feet. Kharitonov has the power to hurt him if he doesn’t fight smart, but if he can avoid big mistakes he will be well-positioned to advance to the Grand Prix finals.
I just don’t think Kharitonov has an answer for Barnett. Barnett is bigger, stronger, more experienced, and just better at everything. His superior reach will confound Kharitonov on the feet, he is a better wrestler, and he is better on the ground. I expect him to batter Kharitonov on the feet before eventually taking him down and submitting him.
Prediction: Josh Barnett via second round rear armbar.
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