Strikeforce Welterweight bout: Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley
Odds: ( +220 Daley /-280 Woodley )
Betting Pick: Woodley
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In a featured Welterweight bout, prolific British striker Paul “Semtex” Daley will look to put the first blemish on the record of undefeated wrestler Tyron “T-Wood” Woodley. Daley is an extremely effective striker with solid technique and devastating knockout power, but his wrestling and grappling are both terrible, which could really be a problem against a dominant wrestler with good submissions like Woodley. Daley does represent a big step up in competition for Woodley, though, so it remains to be seen whether Woodley’s stylistic advantage will be enough to overcome his disadvantage in big-fight experience.
Paul Daley is one of the Welterweight division’s most dangerous strikers. Although he was handily outstruck by Nick Diaz in his last fight, he is nevertheless a technically proficient striker with good punches, good kicks, a decent clinch, and a lot of knockout power. Daley’s problem is his utter lack of offensive wrestling, his total lack of a ground game of any sort, and his mediocre takedown defense. He throws hard punches, and if he lands has a great chance of knocking out anyone, but he is not great at keeping fights standing and once they go to the ground he is pretty helpless off his back. He can’t sweep, escape, or work for submissions, and is reduced to trying to hold on and force a standup. Against Woodley he is going to need to be very aggressive on his feet and not allow Woodley to set up his takedowns, because “T-Wood” has the wrestling and the submissions to really put him in a bad place.
Tyron “T-Wood” Woodley is one of Strikeforce’s best Welterweight prospects. Undefeated so far as a professional, Woodley is a very dangerous grappler with top-notch wrestling and excellent submissions. His standup is a work in progress, and against Daley he is going to be severely overmatched in the striking department. Luckily, though, his wrestling and submission game make him a perfect candidate to exploit the glaring holes in Daley’s style. The big thing for Woodley is that Daley is by far the most dangerous and successful opponent he has ever faced, and if he wilts under the pressure of his first big-time fight he could pay for it, because Daley’s striking is not to be taken lightly.
Although Daley has the bigger name and the more impressive resume, I don’t think he has the tools to hand Woodley his first loss. Daley is just too one-dimensional, and his inability to consistently stop takedowns or defend against submissions is going to be hugely problematic against a grappler as skilled as Woodley. Daley is a tough guy who should make this a fight, but I think Woodley will ground him early and often and work him over from top position. Daley might be able to do enough to hang on, but I think Woodley will dominate the action for a unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision.
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