For the main event we have a dedicated page for the Pierre vs Fitch prediction.
Brock Lesnar vs. Heath Herring
An extremely intriguing Heavyweight match-up between long-tiem veteran Herring and former NCAA (and WWF!) Heavyweight wrestling champion Brock Lesnar. This is a classic case of experience vs. athleticism, technique vs. power, old vs. new.
Anyone who has followed fighting for any significant amount of time is familiar with “The Texas Crazy Horse” Heath Herring. A longtime mainstay in PRIDE’s Heavyweight division, Herring has mixed it up with most of the world’s top Heavyweights, including Fedor, Mark Kerr, Mirko Cro Crop, and Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera. While not a world-class boxer, Herring’s stand-up is certainly serviceable, and his submission attack is definitely potent. Herring’s best attribute, though, is his vast reservoir of experience against top-level competition, which certainly doesn’t hurt against a guy going into his third professional fight.
What he lacks in experience, though, Brock Lesnar more than makes up for in size, power, and athleticism. In his UFC debut against former Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir, Lesnar looked as imposing as a man can look in a one-minute loss. Before getting caught with a slick kneebar, Lesnar mauled Mir’s face with a few hay-makers, and followed up with a vicious ground and pound. Were it not for a questionable stop in the action due to a blow to the back of the head, Lesnar very well might have emerged from the fight victorious. In order to triumph against Herring, Lesnar’s submission defense is going to be crucial. If he can avoid being caught in a flash submission hold, even for a little while, Le snar has all the physical gifts to dole out copious amounts of damage. With his amazing amateur wrestling background, Lesnar should have no problem getting Herring to the ground, and he proved against Mir that he can seriously endanger his opponent from top position. The only question is whether Lesnar’s submission defense has come along far enough since the Mir fight to keep him from getting caught while he throws those huge, bombing shots.
In the end, while Herrings submission game is definitely dangerous, I think Lesnar has the edge in this fight. For one thing, Herring’s jiu jitsu is not on the same level as Mir’s. For another, it is impossible to believe that, after having a potential victory snatched away last time, Lesnar has not been working on his submission defense night and day.
- Despite Herring’s vast advantage in experience, I think Lesnar’s sheer size and power will prove too much to overcome, and he’ll take this one with a vicious TKO in the first round. (Lesner -275 / Herring +205)
Kenny Florian vs. Roger Huerta
Florian and Huerta are set to face off in a highly anticipated bout which will help sort out the upper echelon of UFC’s ultra-stacked 155 pound division. Both men are ostensibly in the hunt for BJ Penn’s Lightweight crown, and so the winner of this bout could very well find themselves facing the champion a few months down the road.
Florian burst onto the UFC scene as part of the original Ultimate Fighter cast. Competing a full 30 pounds above his natural weight, the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu blackbelt shocked the world by making it to the finals, where he was finally physically over-matched by the much-larger Diego Sanchez. Always a competent grappler, Florian began training out of the Sityodtong Muay Thai Academy, under the tutelage of Mark Dellagrotte. Since then k he has evolved into one of the Lightweight division’s most well-rounded fighters, dangerous standing, in the clinch, and on the ground.
Roger Huerta, nicknamed “El Matador”, has looked more like a bull so far, tearing his way through every challenger placed in front of him, most recently with a rear naked choke over the always game Clay Guida. Having not lost a fight since 2004, it is clear that Huerta is no flash in the pan. That said, Florian’s skill-set is much more diverse and dangerous than any other fighter Huerta has ever faced. Both men have dangerous standup, but Florian’s grappling pedigree is definitely a step above Huerta’s. Florian is dangerous enough from the bottom that ground and pound is not going to be a very attractive option for Huerta, who could probably score a take-down due to his significant strength and wrestling advantage.
- One thing is for sure, and that is that this fight will be fast-paced and competitive. I think the fighters will probably stand early, with Florian getting the better of the exchanges, before Huerta starts using his strength and wrestling to hold down Florian early in the secound round, sticking with this game plan on his way to a hard-fought Unanimous Decision. (Florian -140 / Huerta +110)
Manny Gamburyan vs. Rob Emerson
Manuel Gamburyan, who made it to the finals of The Ultimate Fighter before having his shot ended by a fluke shoulder injury against Nathan Diaz, has been desperate to earn a rematch with Diaz and establish himself as one of UFC’s top up and coming 155 pounders. Joe Silva and the UFC matchmaking staff seem eager to accommodate him, offering him Robert Emerson as a ritual sacrifice.
Essentially, this match-up is as one-sided as it gets. Emerson, who is perennially mediocre, is outmatched by Gamburyan in nearly every category. Manuel is a better boxer, stronger, faster, more explosive, has better take-downs, and a vastly superior submission game. It is clear that Emerson is intended as a stepping stone to keep Gamburyan in the fans’ minds building up to the inevitable Ultimate Fighter Finals rematch between him and Nate Diaz.
- Look for Gamburyan to toss Emerson with a powerful judo throw reminiscent of his cousin, Karo “The Heat” Parisyan, before pounding Emerson out for a TKO Victory.
Demian Maia vs. Jason MacDonald
Brazilian Jiu Jitsu superstar Demain Maia is set to face off against fellow grappler Jason MacDonald in what promises to be a technical, strategic ground war. Maia, hoping to protect his undefeated record in Mixed Martial Arts, will be facing his toughest test to date in the form of “The Athlete”.
Demian Maia is one of the top Brazilian Jiu Jitsu blackbelts in the world, having garnered amazing results in competition jiu jitsu. Thus-far, his attempt to translate that including a recent triangle choke victory over Ultimate Fighter alum Ed Herman. MacDonald, though, represents a new level of competition for the up and coming Brazilian. A veteran of nearly 30 fights, MacDonald brings a huge experience advantage to the Octagon. MacDonald has been in with the best in UFC’s 185 pound division, and although he came up short against both Rich Franklin and Yushin Okami, experience against fighters of that caliber can only help against an opponent whose toughest fight to date was against a reality show also-ran.
Unfortunately for MacDonald, sometimes experience just isn’t enough to trump talent. While I have no doubt that MacDonald is the more savvy fighter, his bread and butter is the submission game, and in that regard he is totally outclassed. The guy who is going to stop Maia will have to be extremely well rounded, with amazing take-down and submission defense as well as dangerous stand-up to exploit Maia’s weakness. MacDonald, whose stand-up is sub-prime at best, is going to be forced to take the fight directly into Maia’s realm, a dangerous place for anyone on the planet given the Brazilian’s legendary submission prowess.
- Look for Maia to control this fight, top or bottom, and catch MacDonald with a slick armbar late in Round 2.
