Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix bout: Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum
Odds: ( -500 Overeem / +300 Werdum )
Betting Pick: Overeem
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In the main event of the evening, Strikeforce Heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem will look for revenge against jiu-jitsu phenom Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum, who submitted him in their 2006 PRIDE meeting. Werdum is the same dangerous submission grappler he was in 2006, but Overeem has really grown as a fighter, with monstrous striking, dominant wrestling, and a very effective submission game of his own. Has Overeem developed enough to impose his will on Werdum or will Werdum’s submission prowess thwart Overeem’s momentum yet again.
Fabricio Werdum is coming off a year-long layoff following the biggest win of his career, a submission victory against Fedor Emelianenko. Werdum was badly rocked by an Emelianenko power punch, but had the presence of mind to lock up a triangle choke when Emelianenko jumped into his guard looking to finish. Werdum’s problem is that he doesn’t bring much to the table besides submissions. His boxing isn’t horrible, but it is very rudimentary and his defense is not spectacular. On top of that, his takedowns and wrestling are not world-class, which makes it more difficult to set up his ground game. He has the skills to turn any mistake into a submission, but his limitations force him to fight with a reactionary style as opposed to imposing his will on his opponents.
Alistar Overeem is quite possibly the most formidable Heavyweight striker in the world. A K-1 Grand Prix champion, Overeem has scary punching power, destructive kicks, and can annihilate opponents with knees from the Muay Thai clinch. Despite his clear striking dominance, though, a majority of Overeem’s wins have actually come by way of submission. He has an extremely effective guillotine choke and some of the most underrated wrestling of anyone in the division. He is excellent at using his striking to set up short double legs and can dole out a huge amount of punishment on the ground. Obviously, though, he is going to want to avoid the ground game against Werdum if he wants to avoid a repeat of what happened last time, when he was choked out by a Werdum guillotine. If he wants to prove that he is Strikeforce’s best Heavyweight, he is going to need to use his wrestling defensively so that he can press his sizable advantage on the feet.
Despite his loss in their last matchup, I think this fight favors Overeem. He has seen first-hand how good Werdum’s submissions are, which should make him cautious about getting in any grappling exchanges. Overeem is the bigger, stronger guy and has better wrestling, so he should be able to keep Werdum from forcing this fight to the ground. As long as he plays it safe and doesn’t get reckless looking for a finish like Fedor did, Overeem should be able to keep this fight standing and pick Werdum apart with his vastly superior striking. Overeem by T/KO.
Prediction: Alistair Overeem via third round T/KO.
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