UFC Welterweight Championship Bout: Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields
Odds: (-500 St-Pierre / +300 Shields )
Betting Pick: St-Pierre
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In the main event of the evening, UFC Welterweight champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre puts his title and his #1 pound for pound ranking on the line against top contender and former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields. St. Pierre is widely regarded as the best fighter in the world, and for good reason, but Shields has a very dynamic skill set and one of the most dominant ground games in the sport, so this has all the makings of a classic matchup. Shields is going to have to find a way to neutralize St. Pierre’s dominant top game while also not getting handled in the striking, which is a tall order, but St. Pierre hasn’t had to deal with anyone on Shields’ level in the grappling department who is around his size, so this is going to be an extremely competitive fight.
Jake Shields has been one of the most dominant Welterweights and Middleweights outside of the UFC for years. He looked shaky in his UFC debut, a decision victory over Martin Kampmann, but that was likely a result of his first cut back to 170 in a while. Shields is not a particularly effective striker, but he does have decent defense on his feet. His wrestling is very solid, but he doesn’t have the same kind of dominant takedown game St. Pierre brings to the table. Where Shields really shines is in the submission game, where he is ridiculously effective, and at controlling position from the top once a fight hits the ground. His positioning, control, sweeps, escapes, and submission offense are the best in the world at 170 pounds without a doubt. As good as St. Pierre is on the ground, Shields is going to have to force this fight to the ground, even if it means pulling guard and trying to reverse position, which is not a particularly attractive option against a guy as good on top as St. Pierre is.
Georges St. Pierre is one of the most well-rounded and dominant champions in the history of the sport. He has very dynamic and effective striking, although since suffering an upset knockout loss to Matt Serra he has tended to rely much more heavily on his dominant wrestling and top control game. That may well change against Shields, though, since he will enjoy a massive advantage in the striking department. There is not a better or more effective wrestler than St. Pierre in the sport, despite his lack of an amateur wrestling background. If he has a hole in his game, it is that he overrates his own jiu-jitsu and tends to give up position searching for submissions he isn’t capable of securing, a fact that was glaringly obvious in his win over Dan Hardy. St. Pierre is going to want to play it safe if he wants to keep his dominant win streak alive, which means pressing his advantage on the feet, using his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing, and being content with controlling top position on the ground and using his ground and pound to wear Shields down as opposed to getting too aggressive and relying too heavily on his jiu-jitsu, which is nowhere near as good as he thinks it is.
This is going to be an extremely difficult fight for Shields. St. Pierre is far quicker and more effective in the standup, and his wrestling is a lot better than Shields’ is, which means that unless Shields wants to try and clinch up and pull guard this fight is not going to the ground unless St. Pierre wants it to. If St. Pierre keeps this fight standing he will pick Shields apart with relative ease, but he clearly prefers to rely on his wrestling, even against dominant grapplers. That strategy worked against B.J. Penn, but against Shields he isn’t going to have the same size and strength advantage. If St. Pierre takes this fight to the ground he very well may be setting himself up to get swept or submitted. Greg Jackson, St. Pierre’s coach, is well known for his effective gameplans and for encouraging his fighters to fight safe, which in this case means keeping the fight standing as much as possible. I think St. Pierre is just too dominant a wrestler and too well-rounded for Shields to deal with. Shields is a tough guy and a great fighter, but I think St. Pierre is going to control him and bruise him up for five rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: Georges “Rush” St-Pierre via Unanimous Decision.
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