UFC 105: Aaron Riley vs. Ross Pearson Prediction

155 lbs: Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley

Odds: ( Riley / Pearson)

The opening bout of the evening is a lightweight matchup that pits British prospect Ross Pearson and Aaron Riley against one another.  This is Pearson’s first Octagon appearance since defeating teammate Andre Winner to capture the Ultimate Fighter: US vs. UK title.  Riley, a wily veteran, will be looking to halt Pearson’s momentum before it even gets started, so this one should be competitive.

Aaron Riley, who has fought everywhere from HOOKnSHOOT to IFL to Bodog, had a successful UFC debut, easily handling tough competitor Jorge Gurgel.  In his second fight, though, his momentum was brought up short by a very controversial TKO stoppage against Shane Nelson.  In his last outing, though, Riley put the controversy to rest, earning an easy unanimous decision win against Nelson in a rematch.  A skilled wrestler and jiu jitsu player, Riley’s standup is not going to set the world on fire, but his ground game is certainly formidable enough that opponents have to tread lightly on the mat.

Pearson, like Riley, also does his best work on the ground.  A skilled grappler who is capable of submitting opponents from on top or on his back, Pearson can get the job done on the mat but his standup is slightly subpar.  He is going to have his hands full in this match, though.  Riley is quite possibly the superior wrestler, and almost definitely the superior submission artist.  In addition, Riley has a wealth of experience, a good bit of it against top fighters, which Pearson can not hope to match.

Ultimately, I think Riley is just too much for Pearson.  He has more fights against better opponents, more experience competing on a big stage, and is probably the better grappler, which is the strength of both fighters.  Pearson is probably too good on the ground to get caught in a submission by Riley, but Riley should be able to dictate the pace with takedowns and control the fight from top position. 

Fight Prediction: Riley by unanimous decision.