170 lbs: Dan Hardy vs. Mike Swick
Odds: (-200 Swick / +160 Hardy)
In the second of the evening’s Welterweight matchups, Ultimate Fighter alum Mike “Quick” Swick and top British prospect Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy will collide for an opportunity to challenge champion Georges St. Pierre for his Welterweight crown. Both men have been on a serious tear of late, so this one is a strong candidate for Fight of the Night.
Mike Swick was eliminated by a Stephan Bonnar armbar on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter, and hasn’t looked back since. Swick is a remarkable 9-1 since that loss, with the only loss being a decision against top 185 pound contender Yushin Okami. Swick was very impressive at Middleweight. At Welterweight, he is a monster. His ground game is not spectacular, but it is serviceable. His standup, on the other hand, is both technical and powerful. With a potent combination of hand speed and punching power, Swick is a serious threat in the striking game.
His opponent, Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy, knows a thing or two about being a threat in the striking game himself. A huge power puncher currently riding a six fight win streak, Hardy is a threat to anyone in the world in a kickboxing match. His ground game hasn’t been spotlighted much, but that isn’t a big issue when your takedown defense is the fact that if someone tries to take you down, they run the extremely real risk of eating a punch or a knee and going directly to sleep. While Hardy is capable of fighting on the ground, he will no doubt try to keep this fight standing, where his best chances of ending it are. If he does shoot in, it will no doubt be out of desperation because Swick is getting the best of the standup exchanges.
While both guys are truly formidable and worthy of a title shot, only one of them will earn that honor. As dangerous as Hardy is, I think Swick is just too well-rounded for him to handle. Swick’s standup is good enough that he very well might win the fight on the feet, but if he finds himself in trouble, I think his wrestling and ground game are superior, which should allow him to take Hardy down and control him on the ground.
Fight Prediction: Swick by unanimous decision.
