UFC Fight Night 19: Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger Prediction

170 lbs. Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit (22-5) vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-4)

Condit vs. Ellenberger Odds

The second bout of the night features another former WEC standout in the form of Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit, who will make his second Octagon appearance against MMA veteran and UFC rookie Jake Ellenberger.  While Ellenberger doesn’t have Condit’s high profile, he does have an equally impressive record and a wealth of experience against all sorts of opponents on all sorts of shows.

Ellenberger’s offense is well rounded, although his best work is done with his hands.  Still, he can also take opponents down and submit them, although his ground game isn’t exactly world class.  Even though Condit is the more famous of the two, Ellenberger is actually giving up nothing in the experience department, having fought all kinds of guys all over the place.  The troubling aspect, though, is that his few losses have come every time he has taken a step up in competition, something Condit definitely represents.  If he wants to be successful in his first UFC appearance, he is going to need a career performance, as Condit would be the biggest win he ever earned.

Condit, for his part, is looking to regain some of the momentum he brought into his UFC debut, a disappointing split decision loss to top contender Martin Kampmann.  A very skilled grappler, one of Condit’s best attributes is that he can box much better than most grapplers of his caliber.  He also has an edge over Ellenberger in that he has fought some of the best competition in the world outside of UFC.

This fight is, in some ways, a style versus style clash.  Ellenberger is primarily a striker, Condit primarily a grappler.  The deciding factor, though, will be that Condit’s striking is better than Ellenberger’s grappling.  This means that Condit will be able to play Ellenberger’s game longer than Ellenberger will be able to hang with Condit on the ground. 

That, coupled with Condit’s higher level of competition and big-show experience, will be too much for Ellenberger, who will drop a unanimous decision to “The Natural Born Killer”.