155 lbs. Nate Diaz (10-4) vs. Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard (22-7-2)
Main Event Odds: (-265 Diaz / +205 Guillard ) At Sportsbook.com
Prediction: Diaz by submission in round Two
The main event is a Lightweight fight between Stockton California’s Nathan Diaz and Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard. This fight is interesting in that it will test Diaz’s superior technique against Guillard’s superior size and athleticism. With Diaz having lost two in a row and Guillard riding a three fight win streak, this is an important fight for both guys, although for different reasons.
Guillard is almost freakishly athletic and possesses huge amounts of punching power and explosiveness. His striking is technically inferior to Diaz’s, but much more powerful and potentially fight-ending. The most important thing in this fight, though, is going to be Guillard’s submission defense, which has been dismal in the past. Six of his seven professional losses have come by submission. Considering how slick Diaz’s submissions are, if Guillard hasn’t worked on his submission defense extensively, he is going to be in a lot of trouble.
Diaz, for his part, lacks the kind of athleticism and explosiveness that make Guillard shine. He more than makes up for it, though, with technically solid boxing set up by an odd peppering jab reminiscent of his brother Nick’s. More importantly than that, though, Diaz has excellent submissions from both top and bottom position. If this fight goes to the ground, Diaz will likely submit Guillard easily. The only question is whether Diaz can maneuver this fight to the ground against Guillard’s superior power and athleticism.
Ultimately, I think this is Diaz’s fight to lose. While he is physically overmatched against Guillard, he is vastly technically superior on both the feet and the ground. More importantly, though, his biggest strength is Guillard’s biggest weakness. I think Guillard will control this fight early and toss Diaz around a little bit, but ultimately his lack of technique and wildness will catch up with him, causing him to make a mistake which Diaz will capitalize on.
Diaz by submission, round 2.
