UFC 103: Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley Prediction

170 lbs. Martin “Hitman” Kampmann  vs. Paul Daley

Odds: ( – Kampmann / + Daley)

In what is sure to be a competitive matchup at 170 pounds, heavy-handed Brit Paul “Semtex” Daley steps up to replace the injured Mike Swick against top contender Martin “Hitman” Kampmann.  Originally, this bout was intended to determine the next challenger to Georges St. Pierre’s Welterweight Crown, but Swick’s injury obviously put a halt to that.  Still, a win for Kampmann could very well earn him a title shot, and a win for Daley would go a long way toward establishing him as a contender, so there’s a lot on the line for both men in this fight.

Daley, a heavy-handed and explosive striker, makes his UFC debut after previous stints in EliteXC, Strikeforce, and Cage Rage.  While he is not particularly well-rounded, he has carved out a successful niche for himself by leaving many of his opponents unconscious on the mat with his accurate and powerful striking.  The troubling thing about this fight for Daley is that in his previous attempts at breaking through to the top level of competition, he has been largely unsuccessful.  Now, he will have to face one of his toughest opponents to date on one of the largest stages in the world, and on short notice to boot.  His best bet to come out of this fight victorious is to push the action as much as he can, hoping to keep Kampmann off balance and open for a potentially fight-ending shot.

Kampmann, for his part, will come into this fight with a number of advantages.  Most notably, Kampmann is a very large Welterweight, only recently having moved down from Middleweight following a loss to Nate Marquardt.  For another, Kampmann had the benefit of a full training camp.  Granted, he began training for Mike Swick, but Daley is actually a better stylistic matchup for Kampmann with his utter lack of a ground game.  Another consideration is that Kampmann has more experience on the big UFC stage.

Basically, this is Kampmann’s fight to lose.  All the cards are stacked in his favor and, more importantly, he is just a better and more complete fighter than Daley is.  Barring a flash knockout, which is always a possibility with a guy who hits as hard as Daley, I see Kampmann taking this fight to the ground early and pounding Daley out uneventfully. 

Kampmann by TKO, round 2.