Melvin Guillard vs. Evan Dunham
Odds: (+185 Guillard /-225 Dunham )
Betting Pick: Dunham
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In the main event, once-beaten world Number 10 Lightweight Evan Dunham looks to rebound from his first professional loss, a narrow split decision against former champ Sean Sherk, against athletic contender Melvin Guillard. Dunham is extremely formidable and some felt he did enough to earn the win against Sherk, but Guillard has been constantly improving since his move to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico, so this should be a competitive main event.
Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard, an Ultimate Fighter alum who has put together a very successful UFC career since his stint on the show, is a very dynamic and athletic fighter with great speed and strength to go along with his dangerous striking. Guillard can wrestle, overpower his opponents, put a hurting on them from top position, or put them away with standup striking. The only real hole in Guillard’s game has historically been his submission defense, but even that has improved since his move to Albequerque. In the past, Guillard has been prone to wildness inside the Octagon, and so one of the most important things for him in this fight will be to stick to Jackson’s game plan and use all his tools effectively without creating openings for Dunham.
Dunham, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who fights out of the famed Xtreme Couture gym in Las Vegas, is a very formidable wrestler with solid submissions and a great overall ground game. He showed remarkable toughness in his last fight, surviving a first-round blitz from Sherk to handle himself well in the last two rounds, which many observers felt he won. Dunham has a huge stylistic advantage here in that he is more than capable of exploiting Guillard’s porous submission defense, but he is going to have to fight cautiously to avoid Guillard’s powerful standup and superior physical strength.
This is a terrible matchup for Guillard, who stepped up on late notice to replace the injured Kenny Florian. “The Young Assassin” has grown a lot as a fighter over the last few years, but Dunham is still perfectly positioned to exploit the weakest part of Guillard’s game, which is his submission defense. Both guys are physical specimens, but I think Dunham has superior technique in terms of wrestling and jiu-jitsu. I expect him to control Guillard with wrestling, neutralize his offense, and eventually catch him with a submission for the win.
Prediction: Evan Dunham via Rear Naked Choke.
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