Strikeforce: Nick Diaz vs. Scott Smith Prediction

180 lbs. (Catchweight): Nick Diaz  vs. Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith

The semi main event of the evening is a very strange catchweight bout between Stockton’s favorite son Nick Diaz and Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith at 180 pounds.  Smith is coming off a dramatic, come-from behind victory over the dangerous Benji Radach, while Diaz is still riding the momentum of his complete thrashing of legend Frank Shamrock.  A big win in this fight could cement either fighter as one of Strikeforce’s top attractions.

Scott Smith, whose nickname “Hands of Steel” is very well-deserved, is arguably the most resilient fighter in the history of the sport.  While his hands are definitely steel, the nickname “Chin of Granite” would have suited him just as well, as he has shown a freakish ability to walk through violent punishment in order to land his heavy hands.  While his technique is not stellar, he more than makes up for it with heart, punching power, an indestructible chin, and sheer aggression.

Nick Diaz, in many ways, is Smith’s polar opposite when it comes to the standup game.  His punching power is nothing to write home about, but he consistently confounds his opponents with good technique, quick footwork, awkward angles, and pinpoint accuracy.  Diaz’s jab has proven the bane of many a fighter, and in his last fight he completely overwhelmed Frank Shamrock standing, which even at this point is no small feat.  Even with that in mind, though, the biggest difference between Diaz and Smith is on the ground.  Smith’s ground game is one tiny step from non-existant, whereas Diaz’s is world class.  Even though he has shown a tendency to keep fights standing recently, Diaz has the tools to finish any fighter on the ground, and if he gets in trouble standing, there is little doubt that he will resort to his grappling.

Ultimately, I think Smith will have his hands (of steel) full with Diaz.  Even though Smith has a much better chance of ending the fight standing, Diaz has confounded more technical strikers with his awkward but precise boxing.  In addition, Diaz has a fall back plan on the ground that Smith just doesn’t have.  

I see Diaz battering Smith with jabs before getting into trouble and ultimately taking Smith down and submitting him in the third round.