Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen
In a make or break fight for his career, former WEC standout Chael Sonnen will look to avoid a second consecutive loss against jiu jitsu wiz Dan Miller, one half of the Famous Fighting Miller Brothers. Sonnen was embarassed by submission expert Demian Maia in his last bout, while Miller is currently enjoying a nine fight winning streak, including three wins in three tries inside the Octagon. In WEC, Sonnen was a big fish in a small pond, but if he can’t find a way to win in the big show, he might find himself back in regional promotions, so this is an extremely important fight for the future of his career.
There can be no denial that Sonnen’s wrestling is a force to be reckoned with. His ability to take an opponent down and stay on top is nearly unrivaled, especially in the Middleweight division. The difference between Sonnen and other powerful wrestlers such as Tito Ortiz or Randy Couture, though, is that Ortiz and Couture both have excellent submission defense, whereas Sonnen has absolutely none. This is a problem that has plagued him for a while. He will use his powerful wrestling to get the fight to the ground, control the fight for a while inside his opponent’s guard, and then pretty much stick his head directly into a triangle choke and lose the fight.
Miller is the kind of fighter who seems custom made to make Sonnen pay for his lack of submission defense. An extremely slick grappler who was earned 7 of his 11 wins by submission, Miller has only tasted defeat once, early in his career to wrestler Mike Massenzio by a razor-thin split decision. His wrestling is not that powerful, but he is very good at fighting from the bottom. I see this fight playing out very similarly to Sonnen vs. Filho 1 and Sonnen vs. Maia. Sonnen should control the fight early with takedowns, but Miller is too good on the ground to not exploit Sonnen’s horrible submission defense.
Miller by Triangle Choke, round 2.
