UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum
Odds: ( -550 Velasquez / +375 Werdum )
Betting Pick: Werdum
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UFC 188 brings us a Heavyweight Title bout for the ages. Cain Velasquez will place his title on the line against the #1 contender, Fabricio Werdum. It’s been over 600 days since Velasquez has stepped in the octagon, and much more than that since his opponent wasn’t dos Santos. Velasquez will face a more-than-proven Werdum who we last saw in UFC 180 last November. And to the avid UFC follower, Werdum looked good, scary good. He took some heavy blows and some how mustered the energy to give us a flying knee most will never forget. This is looking to be one of the best UFC Heavyweight bouts in history and you will not want to miss it. Here’s how I think it will go down.
Contender – Fabricio Werdum
Some are giving the edge to Werdum in the striking category, I’m still a bit bit reluctant to do that. I’m not saying Werdum hasn’t stood toe-to-toe with Nelson, Browne, and Hunt but that doesn’t mean his striking is what won. With that aside, he is going to need to show his best striking abilities yet to slow down the champ. Even the best trainers in the world won’t be able to simulate the abilities of Werdum, which with a 600+ day layoff could be a serious problem. Also, I don’t see Werdum wanting to take this fight to the mat, well at least not under his own accord. Velasquez has proven his grappling capabilities and the skills he possesses to get his opponent to his back. Here’s the catch-22, there’s probably no better submission artist in the Heavyweight division history with the submission skills of Werdum. When this fight does go to the mat, which is ultimately will, we’ll see if the power and technique of Velasquez can maneuver around the submission skills of Werdum. Werdum needs to use his newly gained confidence to win this fight. Velasquez doesn’t know what going to happen, or how his body is going to react to being hit. Werdum has all the tools to win this fight, and other than Vegas thinking differently, should be able to win this fight.
Champion – Cain Velasquez
Contrary to what some say, Velasquez, until proven different, is the better striker. Velasquez is going to need to use this skill to remain as the champion. But with striking comes cardio, and the main concern is how much gas is in the tank for someone who hasn’t fought in nearly two years. I believe that for a short period of time, Werdum is going to try and go toe-to-toe with Velasquez, this is when Velasquez needs to inflict most of his damage. His counter-strikes are going to need to be on point, and each punch needs to be effective to conserve whatever energy he has. Once the window has closed for the imminent brawl between the two, Velasquez needs to take Werdum to his back and finish him. Velasquez cannot afford to spend too much time on the mat in fear of Werdum landing a submission, like he has numerous other times. The fight plan for Velasquez is simply, throw effective strikes, take him down and finish him off. Sounds easy but Werdum might have some other plans.
Prediction
I don’t see this fight going the distance. I have two situations I believe are most likely to happen. The first is that Velasquez is able to land some significant strikes to expose Werdum, take him down and ground-and-pound until the ref calls it. The other option is that Werdum can weather the storm that Velasquez is going to throw and land a submission once they inevitably go to the mat. I’m going to pick option number two. I think Werdum is on the ride of his life right now and nothing, even Cain Velasquez can stand in his way.
Winner: Farbrcio Werdum by third roud Sub.
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