UFC Lightweight Bout: Donald Cerrone vs. Jim Miller
Odds: ( -240 Cerrone / +190 Miller )
Betting Pick: Miller
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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 45, WEC veteran Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone will square off against Jim Miller in a battle between two of UFC’s premier Lightweight grapplers. Cerrone mixes his submissions in with some devastating kickboxing, while Miller relies more on wrestling to set up submissions and control position. Will Cerrone be able to add Miller to his highlight reel, or will Miller’s workmanlike style wear Cerrone down? Only time will tell, but this should be a very competitive main event.
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone was one of the clear standouts of the now-defunct WEC, and has continued his success inside the Octagon. Cerrone is an extremely dynamic offensive fighter with submissions from a variety of positions and explosive striking with his hands and legs. Offensively, Cerrone is a force to be reckoned with no matter where this fight goes. His problem is that, against Miller, he isn’t going to have much say where the fight goes. His striking will make Miller wary on the feet, but Miller is clearly the better wrestler and the more physical fighter, so Cerrone is going to have to fight careful to avoid getting planted on his back and forced to work from disadvantageous positions.
Jim Miller is not the UFC’s most exciting fighter, but it’s hard to find fault with his super-effective, workmanlike style. If Cerrone is a flashy, highlight-reel sort of fighter, Miller is a grinder. He uses solid technique and persistent offense to control where fights go, wear down his opponents, and create openings for his devastating submissions. Against Cerrone, Miller is going to be hugely outgunned on the feet, but both of these guys are better with their submissions and it’s Miller who has the wrestling game to dictate the pace and position of this fight.
This is a tough fight to call because these two guys are going to be working toward the same goal with hugely different strategies. Will Miller’s wrestling negate Cerrone’s striking advantage and turn this into a war of attrition on the ground, or will Cerrone punish Miller as he tries to close in for takedowns with his fast, accurate punching? Ultimately, I think Miller is a great underdog pick. Cerrone is the flashier of the two, but Miller is a tough fighter with a hugely underrated ground game, and I think his ability to take a punch in order to secure a takedown will prove the difference. Expect this one to go the distance, but I think Miller scores enough points with his takedowns and controls the action well enough to earn the narrow decision win.
Prediction: Jim Miller by Decision.
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