UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Dan Henderson vs. Shogun Rua
Odds: ( +195 Henderson / -250 Rua )
Betting Pick: Hendo
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The main event of UFC Fight Night 39 features two PRIDE legends going head to head as Dan “Hollywood” Henderson faces Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in a featured Light Heavyweight matchup. Henderson is a former two-division PRIDE champion, while Shogun is a former PRIDE GP winner and UFC Light Heavyweight champion, so these guys have succeeded at the top level of the sport. What’s more, both of these guys can seriously bang and have versatile offensive skill sets, so this should be an extremely competitive fight.
Shogun, during his PRIDE heyday, was easily the scariest fighter on the planet. His mix of fast, accurate striking and savage aggression made him a nightmare for anyone to face. Now, though, injuries have done their work on him, and he’s lost a step or two from his best form. Still, he hasn’t lost his striking prowess or his punching power, nor has his dramatically underrated ground game regressed. Shogun is still a dangerous opponent for anyone in the world. You can’t give him any openings in the standup, because he can and will exploit them, and even on the ground he is very slippery and good at staying out of trouble. Against Henderson, he just needs to try to keep his range to keep himself from getting bullied into the fence and, most importantly, keep circling away from Henderson’s nuclear left hand.
Dan “Hollywood” Henderson is the UFC’s oldest fighter by a fair margin, but that doesn’t mean that he is washed up. Henderson is a top-notch wrestler with one of the best clinch games in the world. He can hurt opponents with dirty boxing, set up trips and hip throws, or just use the clinch and the cage to neutralize his opponents. What makes Henderson such a dangerous opponent, though, is his power punching. Very few wrestlers can throw the kind of one-punch megaton bombs that are Hendo’s bread and butter. His big, looping left hand is one of the most potent weapons in the sport. Against Shogun, Henderson just needs to fight smart. He has the tools to control him in the clinch or to hurt him with strikes, but Shogun has much faster hands, a better jab, and more accurate punching, so Henderson needs to fight safe and not take too much damage trying to set up his offense.
Ultimately, I think this is a good style matchup for Hendo. Shogun is the better pure boxer, but it’s hard to get in a groove when you’re waiting for Henderson’s left hand to come looping in through a blind spot. More importantly, Shogun’s offense is devastating in the clinch, but clinching with Henderson is a recipe for disaster. I think Henderson will be able to use his wrestling to neutralize Shogun and keep this from becoming a pure boxing match. He should be able to land enough punches, coupled with his positional control, to pull off the upset win here. Henderson by decision.
Prediction: Dan Henderson by Decision.
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