UFC Heavyweight Title Bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos
Odds: ( -205 Velasquez / +165 Dos Santos )
Betting Pick: Velasquez
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In the main event of the evening, Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez will square off against former champion Junior “Cigano” dos Santos in a decisive rubber match. The first time these two met, dos Santos captured Velasquez’s title in a one-sided first-round drubbing. The rematch, however, played out totally different, with Velasquez dominating all five rounds of actions by outstriking and outwrestling dos Santos. Many pundits blame Velsasquez’s underwhelming first performance on injuries. Now, he has the chance to prove once and for all that the only loss of his professional career was a fluke and that he is the UFC’s top Heavyweight.
Junior “Cigano” dos Santos is undeniably one of the Heavyweight division’s most prolific and effective strikers. He has devastating punching power and very solid technique both from range and up close in the clinch. He’s already proven once that he has the power and striking prowess to knock Velasquez out. Now, he has to show that he has an answer for Velasquez’s superior physicality and wrestling, not to mention the mental fortitude to stay in the fight when Cain tests his strengths. Overall, dos Santos is a far better striker than Velasquez, but that doesn’t mean that the heavy-handed Velasquez can’t put him in some uncomfortable situations on the feet. Dos Santos has to fight smart and establish his own gameplan early, because Velasquez is known for his hyper-aggressive style, which doesn’t give opponents room to breathe. If dos Santos can just get off to a good start and force Cain into a more defensive mindframe, he will hae gone a long way toward putting himself in position to regain the UFC Heavyweight title.
Cain Velasquez already showed that his first loss to dos Santos was something of a fluke, now he gets his chance to prove once and for all that he is the UFC’s top Heavyweight. Velasquez is a dangerous opponent for anyone, because he combines very powerful punching with dominant wrestling and a go-for-the-throat fighting style which is difficult for opponents to deal with. Obviously, he is going to have to protect his chin, which, although solid, dos Santos already showed he is capable of exploiting. Velasquez can do his own damage on the feet, though, and if he can get his takedown and clinch games working early, he might create some openings for himself to surprise dos Santos in the striking exchanges. The main point for Velasquez, though, is not to get into a brawl with dos Santos. He has to fight with controlled aggression, keeping the pressure on but not creating any easy openings for dos Santos.
Ultimately, I think this fight will prove that their first meeting was a somewhat fluky result which was in large part due to Velasquez’s injuries. Like many other pundits, I picked dos Santos to win the rematch, but Velasquez proved that, when healthy, he can not only physically control and outwrestle dos Santos, he can actually give him trouble in the striking exchanges as well. Velasquez is a smart fighter with a great camp, and I think he will come into this fight with a solid gameplan, trying to mix it up and keep dos Santos on his heels with constant pressure and takedown attempts. dos Santos is a tough guy, so this should go the distance, but I expect Velasquez to win every round en route to a successful title defense. Velasquez by unanimous decision.
Prediction: Cain Velasquez by Unanimous Decision.
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