UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Odds: ( -700 Jones / +450 Gustafsson )
Betting Pick: Jones
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In the main event of UFC 165, Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will defend his 205 pound crown against heavy-handed Swede Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson. With his freakish reach, punsishign striking, dominant wrestling, and effective submissions, Jones has cemented himself as one of the most dominant champions in the world. Gustafsson, though, is riding a very impressive six-fight win streak on the strength of his powerful striking and underrated ground game. GUstafsson has proven himself superior to most of the division’s other top contenders, but Jones represents a unique challenge for any fighter.
Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson has been on a tear since dropping a fight to Phil Davis back in 2010. He’s currently riding the momentum of six straight wins with four finishes, all against reputable opponents. In his last fight, Gustafsson thoroughly manhandled former PRIDE kingpin Mauricio “Shogun” Rua en route to a lopsided unanimous decision. One of the reasons Gustafsson is so dangerous is because he can finish fights in any position. His striking is his most effective weapon, but he has effective submissions from a variety of positions as well. The real question is how well he will handle Jones’ massive reach advantage and superior physical strength. Gustafsson has the power and technique to give Jones problems as long as he doesn’t get overwhelmed and physically controlled.
Jon “Bones” Jones has established himself firmly atop the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. Some fighters are world-class in terms of effective striking, some have world-class submissions or wrestling, and some are solid in all areas but excel at none. What makes Jones so scary is that he is quite likely the best wrestler, striker, and submission grappler in the 205 pound division. When you add his outstanding physical gifts to his stellar technique in all areas, you have a monster who is a nightmare matchup for just about anyone. Jones can beat anyone in the world at their own game, it seems, but he can also completely impose his will on a fight and destroy any attempts at resistance his opponents can offer. In this fight, I think Jones would be wise to use his physicality and wrestling and to keep Gustafsson in bad positions. While Jones has faced some dangerous strikers, his chin has never really been sorely tested, and Gustafsson has more than enough firepower to secure a knockout if Jones gets reckless.
Ultimately, I think Jones is just too much for Gustafsson or anyone else in the division right now. One of the things that makes Gustafsson so scary is his well-roundedness. Unfortunately for him, Jones is equally well-rounded but better at basically everything. Gustafsson is a tough guy and should make this a fight, but ultimately Jones will overwhelm him and catch him. Jones by submission.
Prediction: Jon “Bones” Jones by third round Sub.
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