UFC Lightweight Title Bout: Ben Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis
Odds: ( -125 Henderson / -105 Pettis )
Betting Pick: Hendo
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In the main event of UFC 164, UFC Lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson will look to defend his title against Anthony “Showtime” Pettis in a highly anticipated rematch. The last time these two met, Pettis ruined Henderson’s final WEC appearance by thoroughly outstriking him and putting a cherry on top of his lopsided win in the form of a cage-walking head kick that will probably appear on highlight reels 50 years from now. Henderson has proven, though, that he has what it takes to rule the 155 pound division with an iron fist, and avenging that shocking loss will go a long way toward cementing him as a dominant champion in the vein of Georges St. Pierre.
Anthony “Showtime” Pettis more than lives up to his nickname with his hyper-aggressive and creative offensive skill set. Pettis is equally adept at submitting opponents and knocking them out, but it is his highlight-reel head kicks that have made him one of the most fun to watch Lightweights in the world. There is no question that Pettis has what it takes to hang with any 155 pounder in the world. He already proved that he is more than a match for Henderson on the feet. If he can neutralize Henderson’s clinch game and wrestling like he did last time, there is no reason he can’t leave the Octagon a UFC champion.
Benson “Smooth” Henderson is a huge, physically dominant Lightweight who can hurt guys with striking, wrestling, or submissions. Since defeating Frankie Edgar twice to earn and retain his title, he has also dispatched Nate Diaz and pulled off a narrow win against Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez. What makes Henderson so dangerous is that he can not only take a fight over and impose his will, he can also react to his opponents, find openings, and bust them wide open. Last time, he let Pettis’ dynamism and creative striking put him off his game, and he wasn’t the aggressive, take-charge fighter who has stormed to the top of the Lightweight division.
This is a tough fight to call. Henderson has proven that he is a dangerous champion who is ready for opponents of all sorts, and seems to have improved by leaps and bounds since making his UFC debut. That said, Pettis made Henderson look extremely vulnerable last time they fought, and he certainly hasn’t regressed as a fighter. This is going to come down to Henderson’s wrestling in the end. If he can get his takedowns working and put Pettis in disadvantageous positions, I think he should be able to win easily. However, if Pettis can stay upright and put his striking to good use, he clearly has what it takes to outbox and outkick Henderson. Ultimately, I think Pettis’ first win was a huge upset, and I don’t see lightning striking twice. Henderson is a smart fighter and he knows what mistakes he made against Pettis last time, and I don’t see him making those same mistakes again. I think Henderson will come out determined to get his wrestling game established early. Once he’s established his dominance of positioning, it should be smooth sailing going forward. I predict Henderson retains his title with a hard-fought unanimous decision.
Prediction: Ben “Smooth” Henderson by Unanimous Decision.
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