UFC Flyweight Title Fight: Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson
Odds: ( -285 Benavidez / +225 Johnson )
Betting Pick: Benavidez
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In the semi-main event of the evening, Joseph Benavidez will square off against Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson in a fight that will crown UFC’s first-ever Flyweight champion. Benavidez earned his shot at the belt with a one-sided TKO over Yasuhiro Urushitani, while Johnson had to survive two close, hard-fought bouts with Ian McCall. Both of these guys are versatile, dangerous fighters who can get the job done standing and on the mat, and both of them are hungry to become the inaugural UFC flyweight champion, so this has all the makings of an extremely competitive and exciting title fight.
Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson is a very well-rounded and dangerous fighter who made a big splash at 135 pounds despite being severely undersized for the division. At 125, his more natural weight, he no longer has to worry about entering every fight with a size disadvantage, and that should make him a top player in the division for a long time to come. He had two great bouts against “Uncle Creepy” Ian McCall, the first of which ended in a draw and the second of which he escaped with a decision victory. Johnson has never been finished in his career and is a very dynamic offensive fighter as well. His ground game is very good and his punching is accurate and fast, although it does lack some power. Against Benavidez, Johnson will enjoy a speed and technique advantage on the feet, but he is going to have to be wary of Benavidez’s superior power punching. On the ground, Johnson is excellent, but I think in terms of finishing ability with submissions the edge goes to Benavidez again. Johnson’s best gameplan to capture the title will be to keep this fight in constant motion, landing shots on the feet, taking Benavidez down briefly but not sitting on top of him too long, and not being content to work off his back.
Joseph Benavidez left no doubt that he was a top contender in UFC’s new Flyweight division when he pounded out Yasuhiro Urushitani 11 seconds into the second round of their title qualifier. Like Johnson, Benavidez had great success in a division where he was noticeably undersized. He has tasted defeat only twice as a professional, and both of those losses were razor-thin decisions against current 135 pound kingpin Dominick Cruz. Benavidez is not quite as technical or as quick as Johnson, but he makes up for it by having superior finishing skills. I would give Benavidez a marked edge over Johnson in terms of punching power, and his submissions are probably better too. His best bet if he wants to win this title is to make this a physical, grueling brawl. If he lets Johnson dance around on the outside and control position, he is going to have trouble keeping up with “Mighty Mouse’s” speed and technique. If he can get inside and land some power shots, though, and force Johnson to work off his back a bit, I think his superior submission game and punching power could wear Johnson down and put him in a great position to win.
One thing is for sure, and that is that this will be a very competitive affair. Both of these guys are athletic, fast, aggressive, and hungry and neither of them has any real glaring holes in his game. That said, I think the slight edge here goes to Benavidez, who is the more physical of the two and has more potential to turn the tide of the fight quickly both standing and on the ground. Johnson will very likely outland Benavidez on the feet, but Benavidez’s punching is going to have more impact when he does land. I think Johnson is going to have to fight a little more carefully than he usually does just because Benavidez is such a threat to finish both standing and on the ground, and that is going to present opportunities for Benavidez to capitalize on. I see this fight going the distance, but Benavidez should land the more meaningful punches and control position a little more effectively. Benavidez by unanimous decision.
Prediction: Joseph Benavidez by Unanimous Decision.
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