UFC Middleweight Bout: Jake Shields vs. Ed Herman
Odds: (-200 Shields / +160 Herman )
Betting Pick: Shields
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In a featured Middleweight matchup, former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields returns to 185 pounds, where he will square off against tough wrestler Ed “Short Fuse” Herman. Shields came into the UFC with a lot of hype, but has looked very disappointing thus far. A win against Herman is a must here if he wants to remain relevant in future title discussions. Shields is a prolific submission fighter, but Herman has very underrated submissions of his own and very good wrestling, so he is capable of giving Shields a stern test.
Ed “Short Fuse” Herman made his way into the UFC as a cast member on The Ultimate Fighter, and has used his dominant wrestling and punishing top control to carve out a niche for himself. Herman’s standup has some power, but he isn’t the best technical boxer. There is no question that Herman’s best weapon is the takedown and his ability to dominate from top position while raining down blows. One aspect of Herman’s game that is often overlooked, though, is his submission prowess. Herman is a very prolific submission finisher from a variety of positions. One thing he has trouble with, though, is defending submissions, especially the triangle choke. If Herman wants to pull off the upset, here, he is going to have to be very careful, because Shields is probably better off his back than anyone Herman has ever faced.
Jake Shields is one of the premier submission grapplers in the UFC. A two-division star, Shields has big wins at both Middleweight and Welterweight. He came into the UFC heavily hyped following a dominant win over Dan Henderson, but his UFC career has been defined by uninspired performances. Shields is without a doubt one of the most dangerous submission grapplers in the UFC, but his lack of dominant takedowns, his rudimentary standup, and his sometimes passive style have all held him back from translating his Strikeforce success into the Octagon. In some ways Herman is a great matchup for him, because Herman will be willing to try and wrestle Shields and play into his strengths.
I think this is a very winnable fight for Jake Shields. Herman’s boxing isn’t much more dangerous than Shields’ is, and for Herman to win he is going to have to take Shields down and probably sit in his guard for three full rounds. Herman has notoriously porous submission defense, and I don’t like his chances of doing enough damage to Shields, who is slippery off his back, before he gets caught. Shields by submission.
Prediction: Jake Shields by second round rear naked choke.
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