UFC Lightweight Title Fight: Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar
Odds: (-210 Henderson /+170 Edgar )
Betting Pick: Henderson
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In the main event of the evening, newly-crowned Lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson will try to defend his title for the first time against Frankie “The Answer” Edgar, the man he defeated to capture the belt. Their first fight was very exciting and competitive, but Henderson did enough to earn a relatively clear-cut decision. If Edgar wants to regain his title, he is going to need to find a way to deal with Henderson’s explosive style and size advantage. Edgar has proven time and time again that you would be foolish to count him out, but Henderson is going to be a tough nut to crack for the smaller Edgar.
Frankie “The Answer” Edgar, the last man to hold the UFC Lightweight title, is one of the most dangerous and effective fighters in the world at 155 pounds. Notoriously undersized for the division, Edgar compensates for his lack of size with spectacular technique both standing and on the ground. His boxing is crisp, technical, and quick and he has probably the best footwork in the division. To top it off, he has underrated jiu-jitsu and effective wrestling. He landed some nice punches against Henderson the first time and put Henderson in some bad positions, so clearly a winning strategy does exist for him. What really turned the tide of their last fight was the huge upkick Edgar took to the face, so this time he needs to be more cautious and measured in his approach and not give Henderson a chance to land something huge and fight-changing. If Edgar can make this a technical boxing match, frustrating Henderson when he tries to mix it up and consistently using his footwork to evade Henderson’s punches and beat him to the punch, he will be in prime position to reclaim his championship belt.
Benson “Smooth” Henderson was arguably the top Lightweight in the now-defunct WEC, and it did not take him long to cement himself atop the UFC’s Lightweight division, as well. Henderson is an extremely athletic and explosive young fighter with a variety of ways to win fights. Henderson’s striking is technical and effective, he is a very solid wrestler with a good clinch game, and he has very dangerous submissions, especially his guillotine choke. Henderson is one of the most dynamic fighters in the UFC at any weight, and one of the things that make him so dangerous is that he can explode and change a fight at any moment and from any position. In his last fight with Edgar, Henderson turned what looked like a bad position into a huge upkick that totally swung the momentum of the fight, and he is capable of latching that guillotine on from nearly any angle. One of Henderson’s biggest advantages in this fight is going to be his size and physical strength. He can’t keep up with Edgar’s footwork or quickness, but he is by far the bigger and stronger fighter, and if he can utilize his reach advantage and try to wear Edgar down by leaning on him and getting physical on the inside, he will be in a great position to defend his title successfully.
The first fight between these two guys was extremely competitive, and there is no reason to expect that this one will be any different. Henderson clearly did enough to win the first fight, but without that big upkick things might have played out very differently. Henderson can’t take anything for granted, but if he fights smart I think this is a very winnable fight for him. Henderson is one of the few Lightweights capable of keeping pace with Edgar in terms of speed, quickness, and cardio, but he is a bigger and stronger fighter and I think he has more ways to finish. In all likelihood, this one will go to the judges just like the last one, but I think Henderson should be able to control the action and get in more significant offense. Henderson retains his title by unanimous decision.
Prediction: Ben “Smooth” Henderson by Unanimous Decision.
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