UFC Catchweight (190 lbs) Bout: Rich Franklin vs. Wanderlei Silva
Odds: (-170 Franklin /+140 Silva )
Betting Pick: Franklin
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In the main event of the evening, PRIDE legend Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva will do battle against former Middleweight champion Rich “Ace” Franklin. The last time these two met, at UFC 99 in 2009, Franklin outpointed Silva for a unanimous decision with relative ease. Silva is clearly on the tail end of his career, and Franklin has seemed adrift since getting destroyed twice by Anderson Silva, but these two have complementary styles that basically guarantee an exciting fight. Regardless of their current places in the division, or their futures in the sport, these are two guys tailor made to fight each other.
Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva is one of the most feared and accomplished strikers in the history of the sport. His PRIDE exploits are the stuff of legend, as he dispatched opponents with a mix of aggression and technique that will likely never be matched. Silva has aged considerably since then, and is a ghost of the fighter he used to be, but he still has the aggressive nature and do or die tendencies that made him so exciting in his heyday. You can’t expect the same level of effectiveness that he displayed in his prime, but you can count on him to keep pushing forward and doing everything in his power to hurt his opponents. In his last fight, a win against Cung Le, he showed that he still has a bit of the vintage Silva left in his tank by brutalizing Le with knees and punches. There is never a question about Silva’s game plan at this point in his career. He will treat Franklin like he treats all of his opponents, by trying to walk him down, catch him in the clinch, and punish him until he can’t continue. It remains to be seen whether he can execute that gameplan more effectively than he did in their last fight.
Rich “Ace” Franklin, the former Middleweight champion who is stepping in as a late replacement for the injured Vitor Belfort, has fought only twice in the last two years. Once a mainstay of the Middleweight division, successive destructions at the hands (and knees) of Anderson Silva sent Franklin back and forth between Middleweight and Light Heavyweight, where he has been unable to find any sustained success. Now, he is clearly nearing the ending of his career, but he still has the tools that made him successful, namely accurate boxing, good hand speed, and underrated wrestling. Against Silva, his counterpunching style has already proven very effective, and there is no reason to expect that will have changed. Silva likes to stalk forward constantly, and Franklin is more comfortable than most strikers stepping backward and flinging counterpunches as he evades. If he can force Silva to chase him down and make him eat punches while he does it, it won’t take long for him to wear Silva down so that he can take control of this fight.
What this fight comes down to, in the end, is whether Silva can close the distance on Franklin early enough to start doing significant damage. Franklin’s chin has always been his weak point, and even in his declining years, Silva has the power and especially the clinch game to exploit that weakness. Silva isn’t the fighter he used to be, though, and if he has to expend energy trying to close the gap with Franklin while getting peppered with jabs and counter punches, he is going to lose steam relatively fast. In the end, I just don’t think Franklin is a good style matchup for Silva. At this point, Silva needs an opponent willing to stand in front of him and trade shots, and Franklin is too smart and too experienced to do that. I think Franklin will frustrate Silva early with superior movement and counterpunching, then take over once he has worn Silva down. Franklin by unanimous decision.
Prediction: Rich Franklin by Unanimous Decision.
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