Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva Prediction

UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva

Odds: (-230 Gustafsson /+180 Silva )

Betting pick: Gustafsson

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In the main event of the evening, American Top Team’s Thiago Silva returns to action following a layoff of over a year. Standing in his way is skilled Swedish veteran Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson. Both of these guys have fight-ending potential with their striking, but Gustafsson has a very accomplished ground game as well, so Silva is going to have to be careful to avoid takedowns or to control top position if this fight does go to the mat. Gustafson is riding a four fight win streak, so a signature win here could go a long way toward establishing him as a player in the title scene. Silva, for his part, badly needs a win to reassert himself near the top of the division after a fairly extended period of inactivity. Both of these guys have versatile, dangerous skill sets and a lot to fight for, so this has the makings of a very competitive main event.

Thiago Silva is, without question, one of the more formidable strikers in the Light Heavyweight division. Despite his dangerous striking prowess, though, Silva has not actually won a fight since August of 2009. He has fought only twice since then, suffering a defeat at the hands of Rashad Evans and having a unanimous decision win against Brandon Vera overturned after falsifying a urine sample for a post-fight drug test. It remains to be seen how much the layoff will impact Silva’s effectiveness, but the combination of 2 fights in 2 ½ years and presumably being off performance enhancers make it unlikely that he will be in top form. Still, anyone who is willing to stand and let Silva throw punches at them is inviting trouble, and Silva has very effective takedown defense, so if Gustafsson takes him lightly he could easily find his winning streak snapped.

Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson is a tall, dangerous Light Heavyweight with a versatile skill set. He has scary punching power that can end fights and extremely effective submissions from a variety of positions. Gustafsson has only been defeated once as a professional, when Phil Davis physically dominated him before submitting him with an Anaconda Choke. It is unlikely that Silva will be able to recreate that game plan, but there is also no question that Silva is the most dangerous and experienced fighter Gustafsson has ever faced. Gustafsson is a great striker in his own right, but I don’t think it would be wise for him to engage in a kickboxing match with Silva. Gustafsson’s strength in this fight is his superior versatility, which will allow him to score some points on the feet and with takedowns and positional control. If he can press his advantage he will be in great shape to make it five in a row.

This is going to be a very competitive matchup. Both guys can get the job done in the striking exchanges, but I think the technique edge on the feet has to go to Silva. There is no question that Gustafsson is the more versatile of the two, and should be able to control the fight if he can force it to the ground, but Silva is difficult to take down and could easily punish Gustafsson for failing to secure takedowns. In the end, though, I think Gustafsson has the slight edge overall because of his ability to score points anywhere the fight goes. Silva will land some shots, but so will Gustafsson, and I think Gustafsson will be able to take Silva down a time or two and score enough points on the ground to earn the unanimous decision victory.

Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision.

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