Martin Kampmann vs. Thiago Alves Prediction

UFC Welterweight bout:  Martin Kampmann vs. Thiago Alves

Odds: ( +105 Kampmann /-135 Alves )

Betting Pick: Kampmann

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In the main event of the evening, former title challenger Thiago “Pitbull” Alves will square off against well-rounded Danish kickboxer Martin Kampmann in a featured Welterweight bout. Alves has shown time and again that he is one of the most dangerous and effective strikers in the Welterweight division, with punishing boxing and devastating kicks,but Kampmann is a formidable striker in his own right and also brings solid wrestling and effective jiu-jitsu to the cage. Both of these guys have had mixed results recently, but with Georges St.Pierre injured and Nick Diaz likely serving a long suspension, a win here could put them right back in the mix in the clouded title picture. The question here is whether Alves’ crushing physical strength and brutal Muay Thai will be enough to trump Kampmann’s superior versatility, or will Kampmann be able to impose his will and ground Alves, taking him off his game?

Thiago “Pitbull” Alves is, without a doubt, one of the most powerful and effective Welterweight strikers in the world. He has great boxing with heavy hands, brutal kicks to the legs and body, and devastating knees and dirty boxing from inside the clinch. There is no question that Alves has what it takes to stand and trade with anyone in the division, but he has shown some difficulty dealing with superior grapplers. The last three quality wrestlers he fought all managed to neutralize his offense either in the clinch or by putting him on his back, and he lost all three of those fights by decision. Kampmann isn’t as solid a wrestler as Fitch or Georges St. Pierre, but he does have solid takedowns and a quality ground game, so if Alves wants to win here he is going to have to make Kampmann pay for trying to get in close, either by catching him with punches on the way inside or by using his size and strength advantage, along with knees and dirty boxing, to wear Kampmann down in the clinch. If Kampmann is able to get Alves to the ground he is going to have a very difficult time fighting off his back, so it is imperative that Alves try to maintain some distance, chop away at Kampmann’s base with leg kicks, and use his jab to push Kampmann away and set up power punches.

Martin Kampmann, who trains out of the Xtreme Couture camp in Las Vegas, is without a doubt one of the most versatile and effective Welterweights in the UFC. He isn’t the division’s best grappler, or its most devastating striker, but very few Welterweights have such a well-rounded skill set or put it all together nearly as well. While he has dropped two of his last three fights, many feel he was robbed in his split decision loss to former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields. One question mark about Kampmann that could play an important role in this fight is his chin. He doesn’t have a glass jaw, but he has been knocked out by much less dangerous strikers than Alves, so if he lets Alves find a groove on the feet and start landing punches he could find himself in very serious trouble. Kampmann’s best weapon here is going to be his versatility. He shouldn’t totally shy away from striking with Alves, because he has good striking in his own right, but by mixing up his skills and using his well-rounded offense to keep Alves guessing, he can prevent Alves from asserting his will on the feet.

This is going to be a very competitive bout. Both of these guys have the potential to end the fight standing, but I think if this plays out as a kickboxing match Kampmann will ultimately get caught by the much more formidable Alves. If Kampmann can mix it up well, though, like he does in his best performances, it is going to be difficult for Alves to settle into his game plan, which is very dependent onout-muscling his opponents and chopping away at them with those powerful leg kicks. In the end, I think Kampmann’s wrestling is going to be the wild card here. While he is primarily known for his striking and his submissions, Kampmann’s takedowns are very underrated, both in the clinch and from range, and I think that is going to be the difference maker. Alves does not work well off his back at all, and I think Kampmann can not only score points with takedowns, but frustrate Alves and prevent him from really settling in to his game plan. This will be a hard-fought bout, and Alves will get some shots in, but I think Kampmann’s ability to dictate position andfight in all ranges will be the difference maker. Kampmann by unanimous decision.

Prediction: Martin Kampmann by Unanimous Decision.

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