UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Rampage Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
Odds: (-265 Jackson /+205 Bader )
Betting Pick: Jackson
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In the semi-main event, PRIDE legend Quinton “Rampage” Jackson returns to his old Saitama stomping grounds to square off against tough young wrestler Ryan “Darth” Bader. Jackson is clearly on the tail end of his professional fighting career, but he is still a formidable wrestler with knockout power in either hand who will be looking to recapture some of his former greatness in the building where many of his greatest victories occurred. Bader, for his part, got off to a white-hot start before dropping two of his last three, so a win here is crucial if he wants to remain at all relevant in the crowded Light Heavyweight picture. Both of these guys are solid wrestlers with heavy hands who like to stand and throw, so this has all the makings of an exciting and competitive Light Heavyweight showdown.
Ryan “Darth” Bader looked like one of the UFC’s fastest rising stars for a while, holding an undefeated professional record and punishing opponents with his blend of heavy-handed power punching, dominant wrestling, and top control. After seeing his winning streak destroyed by Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones and suffering an embarrassing upset at the hands of former champion Tito Ortiz, though, Bader saw his stock plummet substantially in a matter of months. He did rebound slightly with a win over journeyman grappler Jason Brilz, but now he is back in the deep end of the division fighting another world-class opponent with years and years of experience on him. Bader has the tools to succeed at the highest levels of the Light Heavyweight division, but he has to find a way to put it all together better and he has to improve his submission defense as well. Bader showed against both Jones and Ortiz that he has a hard time dealing with anyone he can’t outwrestle, and Rampage is a perfect example of a guy who can not only match him in the wrestling department, he is also a more dangerous striker as well. If Bader wants to avoid his third loss in four fights and a possible pink slip from the UFC, he is going to have to pick his spots and fight carefully, not giving anything away to Jackson, who has the skills and experience to capitalize on any mistake.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson was one of the most dangerous and popular fighters during PRIDE’s best days, and has continued to show that he is one of the best Light Heavyweights on the planet even in the late stages of his career. Jackson is a great wrestler with a surplus of physical strength and knockout power in both fists. He doesn’t mix it up much in the striking, rarely throwing kicks and instead preferring to box his opponents, but his punching power and the wide, looping trajectory of his haymakers make him a tough fighter to defend against. He has never used his wrestling much offensively, although he certainly could if he decided to. Jackson’s gameplan is to get in his opponents’ faces, keep throwing big punches, and wait until one connects. In a lot of ways Bader is a tailor-made opponent for him, because he will be willing to stand and trade shots for extended periods of time. Rampage is past his physical peak, but he still has it in him to punish anyone dumb enough to be on the end of one of his power punches, and Bader is likely to be ripe for the picking in that regard.
I just don’t think this is a good matchup for Bader on any level. These guys have extremely similar skill sets, but Jackson has been doing it years longer and against massively superior opponents. I don’t think Bader has the wrestling to put Rampage on his back and I don’t think he has the punching power to get through Rampage’s solid chin. This fight will play out on the feet I think, and Jackson will get the better of those exchanges before eventually connecting with enough power shots to put Bader away. Jackson by T/KO.
Prediction: Rampage Jackson by third round T/KO.
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