Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson Prediction

UFC Lightweight Championship Bout:  Frankie Edgar vs. Benson Hendeson

Odds:  (-130 Edgar /Even- Henderson )

Betting Pick:  Edgar

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In the main event of the evening, UFC Lightweight champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar will look to defend his title against former WEC standout Benson “Smooth” Henderson. Edgar, once considered undersized for the division, has established as a dominant champion with stellar defensive wrestling, effective boxing, and unmatched footwork. Henderson is a much bigger and stronger guy with good wrestling of his own and very effective submissions, but Edgar has proven that he has the tools to outbox anyone in the division and is notoriously difficult to take down. If Henderson wants to leave a champion, he is going to have to find a way to capitalize on his strength advantage and get Edgar on his back, where Henderson has the size, strength, and technique to control the action, score points with ground and pound, and work for submissions.

Benson Henderson was one of WEC’s biggest stars, and he made a very “Smooth” transition into the UFC. Henderson is one of the strongest, most dynamic athletes in the Lightweight division, and has extremely solid technique to back up his obvious physical prowess. Henderson is a very effective wrestler with great submissions, especially his guillotine choke, which is one of the best in the sport. He is dominant from top position and it is very hard for opponents to get out from underneath him. His striking is technically sound, but he doesn’t have a lot of punching power and, against Edgar, he will be at a significant disadvantage in both hand speed and footwork. Henderson’s biggest advantages will be size, strength, and reach, and if he can force Edgar to backpedal with long jabs while trying to set up takedowns and get this fight to top position, he will be putting himself in a great position to win this fight. One big question mark is how well Henderson will hold up moving into the championship rounds. He has fought five rounds twice before, and he is supremely conditioned, but Edgar’s evasive style and quick movement have a way of tiring guys out, so Henderson is going to need to be aggressive without blowing all his stamina in the early rounds if he wants to avoid petering out and letting Edgar pick him apart in the fourth and fifth.

Frankie “The Answer” Edgar was once considered too small to compete at Lightweight, where nearly all of his opponents have a size and strength advantage against him. Back to back drubbings of future Hall of Famer BJ Penn went a long way toward answering those questions, and his fourth round knockout of Gray Maynard in his last outing put them to rest for good. Edgar isn’t one of the most dominant fighters in the world in any one category, but he also has no glaring holes and puts everything together flawlessly. He is an accomplished wrestler with great submission skills, but he prefers to use both defensively rather than pressing for takedowns and trying to finish fights on the ground. Edgar’s best work comes in the striking, where he is crisp, quick, and accurate. His footwork is easily the best in the division, and his natural quickness allows him to move constantly, keep opponents guessing, and sneak shots past their defense while staying out of trouble himself. Against Henderson there is no question that Edgar will want to use his grappling defensively and try to keep this fight standing. There is a good chance he could hang with Henderson on the ground, too, but he would be foolish to play into Henderson’s strengths when he will have such a marked advantage on the feet.

This has all the makings of a very competitive championship bout. Both of these guys have the cardio to fight hard for all five rounds; both have extremely versatile skill sets that allow them to press the action wherever a fight goes; and neither has any huge, glaring holes in their game that will be easy for the other to exploit. In the end, though, I think the slight edge goes to Edgar here. He has fought better opponents, he has been on this biggest stage before, and he has an advantage in that fights start standing and Henderson is going to have to find a way to take him down, which Edgar has the tools to prevent. I see this fight going the distance, with a lot of back and forth, but I think Edgar’s ability to thwart Henderson’s takedowns coupled with his superior movement and punching acumen on the feet will allow him to score enough points to successfully defend his UFC Lightweight Title again. Edgar by decision.

Prediction:  Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision.

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