UFC Welterweight Interim Championship bout: Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit
Odds: (-225 Diaz /+175 Condit )
Betting Pick: Diaz
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In the main event of the evening, former Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz and top contender “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit will meet for the UFC Interim Welterweight title. Diaz was originally scheduled to face champion Georges St. Pierre in his Octagon return, but was pulled from the fight and replaced with Condit after failing to show up for promotional appearances. With St. Pierre on the sidelines for most of 2012 with injuries and Diaz riding the momentum of dominating former Welterweight champion B.J. Penn, Condit and Diaz will now meet to determine an interim champion. Both of these guys are prolific finishers with versatile offensive skill sets and aggressive styles, so this fight will likely be far more entertaining than either man vs. St. Pierre would have been.
“The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit is one of the most versatile and effective Welterweights in the UFC. Currently riding a four fight win streak and having won 11 of his last 12 bouts, Condit has established himself as one of the top players in the Welterweight division. Condit is a prolific finisher, having only won by decision once, and is one of the most versatile fighters in the sport, as is evidenced by his having an even number of wins by T/KO and submission. He has great hand speed and power and he is effective from range and in the clinch. If there is a hole in his game it is his wrestling, which is serviceable but not dominant. Luckily for him, Diaz is also a subpar wrestler, so that probably shouldn’t come back to bite him. Basically, for Condit and Diaz both, this fight is going to come down to balancing aggression with fighting mistake-free. Both of these guys are so effective with striking and grappling that it might well come down to who slips up first, so Condit is going to have to find a way to impose his own gameplan, not let Diaz get comfortable, but also not get too aggressive and leave himself open.
Nick Diaz has grown into one of the most feared and complete Welterweights in the world. After a first stint in the UFC highlighted by mixed results and some disappointing losses, Diaz really developed into a world-class striker during his time in Strikeforce. His jiu-jitsu has always been stellar from every conceivable position, and with the addition of devastating punching he has become an offensive force to be reckoned with. His punching is highly unorthodox, and while he doesn’t have the same amount of one-punch power that Condit does, he is a master of piling damage on his opponents and relentlessly pressing forward with more shots, making it impossible for them to recover or defend themselves. Like Condit, Diaz isn’t a spectacular wrestler, but he is destructive in the standup and guys are reticent to take him down because of how dominant his jiu-jitsu is. The other thing that makes Diaz so scary is his otherworldly cardio, which allows him to press the action constantly no matter how long a fight goes.
This is one of the toughest fights to call in recent memory. Both of these guys have a ton of momentum against high-level opponents, both have versatile and dangerous skill sets that make them dangers to finish at any time no matter where a fight goes, and neither has glaring weaknesses. This is going to come down to who can impose their own gameplan, who can be more aggressive, and who makes the fewest mistakes. As tough as these two guys are, they are both so dangerous that it is hard to see a five round fight between them going the distance. In the end, I think the edge here goes to Diaz. I think his cardio and chin are a little better, his jiu-jitsu is much better, and his unorthodox boxing style is going to make him a little harder to defend against in the striking. I just think Diaz has too many tools for Condit and will find a way to take this fight over in the late rounds, where his superior cardio and punching volume will overwhelm Condit. Diaz by T/KO.
Prediction: Nick Diaz by third round T/KO.
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