UFC Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman
Odds: (+120 Maia /-150 Weidman )
Betting Pick: Weidman
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In a featured Middleweight bout, former title challenger Demian Maia will look to make it two wins in a row against undefeated phenom Chris “All American” Weidman. Maia is, without a doubt, one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the sport, with world-class jiu-jitsu from every position and rapidly improving wrestling and striking. Weidman has earned himself a lot of hype with a stellar takedown game of his own and an aggressive ground game focused on passing guard, improving his position, softening opponents up with ground and pound, and securing submissions of his own. Weidman has looked unstoppable thus far in his young career, but there is no question that Maia represents a big step up in competition for him and is an opponent that can test his strengths and his weaknesses, so he will need to step his game up if he wants to continue building momentum.
Demian Maia is arguably the most effective submission grappler in the world at 185 pounds, with stellar submissions from every position and world-class sweeps and escapes. His boxing is very much a work in progress, but he continues to improve. He will never be a dangerous striker as he lacks power and it’s too late for him to develop world class technique, but he has become much more effective and aggressive in the striking department. His wrestling isn’t dominant either, but his takedowns continue to improve and he has very tricky trips and short takedowns from the clinch. Maia will always be a grappler first, and will do anything it takes to get fights to the ground, including pulling guard. Against Weidman that really might not be the best plan, because Weidman has pretty good jiu-jitsu of his own and is devastating from top position. If Maia wants to reassert himself as a top figure in the Middleweight division, he is going to have to score points on the feet and try to find tricky ways to wind up in top position on the ground, because he doesn’t want to be underneath Weidman no matter how good his jiu-jitsu is.
Chris Weidman is one of the most exciting and promising young prospects in the Middleweight division. A Matt Serra disciple, Weidman has carved out an undefeated record with dominant wrestling, punishing ground and pound, and excellent submissions of his own. Like Maia, his striking is a work in progress, but he is still young and has shown vast improvement every time he has shown up to fight, so who knows how much his technique has developed since his last fight. There is no question that Weidman’s best work comes on the ground, but he is going to have to be cautious fighting a grappler of Maia’s caliber. Weidman has great jiu-jitsu of his own, so it is entirely possible that he will be able to do enough on the ground to avoid getting submitted while working Maia over from top position, but if he gets too reckless throwing punches or trying to pass guard he could well be setting himself up for disaster. One thing Weidman has going for him is a huge advantage in the wrestling department, so when this fight inevitably goes to the ground he will almost definitely be the one dictating when it happens and in what position.
This is going to be a very tough fight. As strange as it may seem considering the grappling prowess of these two fighters, this one may well come down to who can do more on the feet since their jiu-jitsu could well turn the ground game into a stalemate. It is going to require a very good performance, but I think ultimately the edge here goes to Weidman. He is the better wrestler and will likely control top position on the ground, and I think he has a technical edge on the feet too. I think it is highly unlikely that either of these guys will finish the other, but I think Weidman should be able to do enough to earn the narrow decision in a very competitive bout.
Prediction: Chris Weidman by Decision.
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