UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Odds: (+160 Ortiz /-200 Nogueira )
Betting Pick: Nogueira
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In a featured Light Heavyweight bout, former Light Heavyweight champion and surefire Hall of Famer Tito Ortiz will square off against PRIDE veteran Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira. Ortiz’s potent double leg and ground and pound made him one of the most dominant fighters in the world during his peak, but time and repeated back injuries have cost him a lot of his former effectiveness. Nogueira was a very promising young fighter in PRIDE, but his UFC stint has been marred by uneven performances and disappointing results. Both of these guys are skilled and experienced, though, and a win here is big for both guys, although for different reasons. This should be a very competitive and exciting bout.
“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz is a true UFC legend and, at his peak, was probably the most dominant Light Heavyweight in the world. Tito’s dominant double leg takedowns, positional control, and ground and pound changed the landscape of the sport forever. His repeated struggles with back injuries have really impacted his ability to quickly change levels over the years, though, so now his takedowns are nowhere near as effective or difficult to defend as they used to be. Still, Ortiz is a durable and experienced veteran with solid boxing technique, and he is still effective from top position even if he is not as good at forcing fights there.
Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira is a well-rounded and skilled veteran who is in the middle of an unprecedented slump, having dropped two in a row. Even more troubling, one of those losses was a manhandling at the hands of Ryan Bader, who Ortiz destroyed with relative ease. Little Nog is a great boxer with solid punching power and impeccable technique with world-class jiu jitsu, but he has had mighty struggles against good wrestlers throughout his career and especially in his last few bouts. If he wants to avoid a third straight loss, he is going to have to press his advantage on the feet while still defending against Ortiz’s takedowns, which is no easy task.
This is a tough fight to call. On the one hand, both guys recently fought Ryan Bader, and Ortiz dominated him while Nogueira got handled. Still, though, styles make fights, and Ortiz can’t stand and box with Nogueira, nor can he consistently sit on top of him in guard even if he can secure takedowns. I don’t think Tito’s wrestling is good enough for him to consistently take Little Nog down, and Nogueira’s jiu jitsu is too good to make sitting on top of him for three rounds a winning strategy. Both of these guys are tough and durable, and this fight should go the distance, but I think Nogueira will be able to consistently out punch Ortiz for the narrow decision win.
Prediction: “Lil Nog” by Split Decision.
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