UFC Heavyweight Championship bout: Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos
Odds: (-190 Velasquez / +155 Dos Santos )
Betting Pick: Velasquez
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In the main event of the evening, Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez will look to make his first title defense against dynamic Brazilian striker Junior “Cigano” dos Santos. Velasquez is undefeated as a professional and has demolished everyone he has faced, but dos Santos is probably the Heavyweight division’s most devastating striker. What makes this bout so interesting is that dos Santos can test Velasquez’s chin and stand up defense in a way he has never had to deal with, and Velasquez can do the same with dos Santos’ ground game. Both of these guys have proven weapons, but they have question marks as well, and that makes this a great main event.
The challenger, Junior “Cigano” dos Santos, is one of the most feared Heavyweight strikers in the world. He is currently riding an eight fight win streak and has finished six of those eight fights with strikes. In terms of technique, no current UFC Heavyweight is on dos Santos’ level in the striking department, and he has vicious knockout power to go along with it. The big question about dos Santos is how well his take down defense and ground game will hold up against an elite-level wrestler. Velasquez is a guy who can not only push his take down defense to the limit, he has enough striking that he isn’t going to be easily overwhelmed on his feet. If dos Santos wants to win this fight, his number one priority has to be keeping this fight standing and picking his shots so he can defend Velasquez’s take downs.
Cain Velasquez earned his Heavyweight title with a lethal mix of brutal, heavy-handed boxing and elite wrestling. Velasquez isn’t the most dominant pure wrestler in the Heavyweight division, and he isn’t the most technical striker,but he has by far the most complete and devastating game of anyone in the UFC. His wrestling is explosive and dominant, and he has very fast and accurate hands with a lot of power. Velasquez is big enough and powerful enough that if he starts connecting with power punches, no one is going to survive, but it would still be ill-advised for him to engage in a protracted standup war with dos Santos. Dos Santos has never faced a wrestler on Velasquez’s level, and the champ would be smart to test his take down defense and try to take away his weapons and make him work off his back.
This has all the makings of a very competitive and unpredictable match up. There is no question that dos Santos is the best striker Velasquez has ever faced, and against Cheick Kongo Velasquez showed that a good striker can get through his guard and that his chin is not rock solid. If dos Santos can connect with power punches, it may not take many to put Velasquez away. On the other hand,dos Santos has never really faced even a decent wrestler, much less a dominant force like Velasquez. All the striking prowess in the world isn’t going to help dos Santos if he is on his back getting pounded and unable to improve his position. In the end, I think Velasquez’s superior versatility will allow him to retain his title. He is a formidable striker himself, and should be able to at least survive and set up takedowns. I don’t think dos Santos is equipped to handle Velasquez’s wrestling, and I think that eventually he will get worn down and overwhelmed from bottom position. Velasquez retains by T/KO.
Prediction: Cain Velasquez via third round T/KO.
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