UFC Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon vs. Melvin Guillard
Odds: (+350 Lauzon /-500 Guillard )
Betting Pick: Guillard
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In what should be a very exciting Lightweight showdown, resurgent “Young Assasin” Melvin Guillard will look to extend his five-fight win streak against prolific grappler Joe Lauzon. Guillard has looked excellent in his last handful of fights, but Lauzon is deadly on the ground, so Guillard is going to need to fight very carefully if he wants to keep up his current momentum.
Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon is an extremely dangerous submission fighter who has never won a fight by decision. The huge majority of his wins are by submission, and he has amassed a very impressive record against good competition. Lauzon’s biggest problem is that he is extremely one-dimensional. His boxing is technically sound but not powerful at all, he isn’t very physically powerful, and his wrestling really isn’t that good. If a fight hits the ground he is as good as almost anyone, but against a physical young fighter like Guillard he may find it difficult to force the fight to the ground. If he is smart he will try to clinch and trip Guillard, which would help keep him out of trouble in the striking and hopefully secure him top position. Guillard’s submission defense is notoriously porous, so if Lauzon can find a way to force a ground fight, he has a great chance of pulling out a win here.
Melvin Guillard, who made his way into the UFC after a failed stint on Season 2 of The Ultimate Fighter, had a very uneven start to his career in the Octagon. After moving to Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, though, Guillard has steadily turned into an extremely consistent and dangerous young contender. He is strong, fast, and explosive, and he has a huge amount of knockout power in his hands. He uses his physicality very effectively, and is a fairly solid wrestler, both offensively and defensively. His Achilles heel has always been his submission defense, so if he wants to survive this bout he needs to make it his priority to thwart Lauzon’s takedown attempts and keep this fight standing.
I think this is going to be a tough fight for Lauzon. There is no question that he is better than Guillard on the ground, but he is going to be seriously outgunned on the feet and I don’t think his wrestling is good enough to put Guillard down. I think Guillard will overpower and outstrike Lauzon and win a very lopsided decision.
Prediction: Melvin Guillard via Unanimous Decision.
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