UFC Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi
Odds: (-280 Diaz /+220 Gomi )
Betting Pick: Diaz
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In a featured Lightweight bout, Nate Diaz returns to 155 pounds to face off against former PRIDE champion Takanori Gomi. Both of these guys have had mixed results in UFC, and Diaz is coming off two straight losses at Welterweight, but both have dangerous skills and a propensity for very exciting fights, so this could be one of the better fights of the night. Both of these guys have versatile skill sets, but Gomi is the more dangerous striker while Diaz has the more effective ground game, so this is a great style matchup as well.
Nate Diaz has had mixed results in UFC, and is riding a two fight losing streak at 170 pounds, but he is an extremely dangerous fighter, especially at Lightweight. He doesn’t have much in the way of one-punch knockout power, but like his brother Nick he is very good at using his unorthodox striking to wear down opponents. He isn’t the best wrestler, but he does have good judo throws from the clinch and on the ground he is extremely effective from every position. He has submissions from his back and from top position and an excellent ability to sweep and escape disadvantageous positions. He is not a very physical fighter, and can be overpowered, but he has a dangerous offensive skill set and is capable of competing with the best in the world, as he proved when he was robbed blatantly in his fight against title challenger Gray Maynard.
Takanori Gomi was the most dominant Lightweight in PRIDE for years, exciting audiences and destroying opponents with his dynamic striking attack. Gomi is actually also a pretty good wrestler with effective submissions, but by far his best work is done on the feet. There is no question that he has more punching power than Nate Diaz, but he is going to have to be wary of Diaz’s speed. He is also a better wrestler than Diaz probably, but taking this fight to the ground would be a huge mistake. Gomi is going to need to make this a straight up boxing match, avoiding the ground game and the clinch and exploiting his power advantage.
I think this is going to be a tough fight for Gomi. Diaz’s submission advantage nullifies Gomi’s ability to take the fight to the ground, and while Gomi is the more powerful puncher, Diaz is the quicker and more technical of the two on the feet. Diaz’s ability to utilize his reach advantage, beat Gomi to the punch, and maybe score trip takedowns and work from top position should be enough to help him earn the unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Nate Diaz via Unanimous Decision.
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