Strikeforce Middleweight bout: Luke Rockhold vs. Ronaldo Souza
Odds: (+350 Rockhold /-500 Souza )
Betting Pick: Souza
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In a featured 185 pound matchup, Middleweight champion Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza will put his title on the line against top contender Luke Rockhold, who is currently riding a six fight win streak and dominating the Strikeforce Challengers Series. This is a huge step up for Rockhold, though, and since his best work comes on the ground with submissions, the fact that he is being matched up against such a prolific grappler makes the task that much harder for him. If he wants a chance at taking Jacare’s belt he is going to need to fight flawlessly and turn in the best performance of his career.
Luke Rockhold, a long-time Strikeforce veteran, is riding a very impressive winning streak, having finished all six of his last opponents. Rockhold is a very solid grappler with decent boxing, good wrestling, and very effective submissions. He isn’t a dominant puncher but his boxing is solid enough and he is very effective at taking opponents down, working them over with ground and pound, and catching them with submissions. Against Jacare he is going to have trouble executing that gameplan, because Jacare’s jiu-jitsu is on a whole different level.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza entered the sport with a world-class jiu-jitsu background, and has continued to evolve as a fighter. Obviously his ground game will always be his bread and butter, but he has grown into a formidable striker with excellent technique and very fast hands. He is definitely a better submission grappler than Rockhold, and is probably a better boxer as well. The only advantage he will be giving up is in the wrestling department. Rockhold has better takedowns and is the more physical of the two.
I don’t see any way for Rockhold to win this fight. Jacare is better on the feet, he has far better submissions, and no matter how this fight plays out on the ground Jacare is going to have the advantage. Rockhold probably has better wrestling, but that isn’t much use when taking Jacare down is basically inviting him to submit you. Rockhold is a competent grappler and should be able to defend himself on the ground, but I think Jacare will pick him apart en route to a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza via Unanimous Decision.
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