Strikeforce Light Heavyweight bout: Muhammed Lawal vs. Roger Gracie
Odds: (-160 Lawal /+130 Gracie )
Betting Pick: Gracie
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In a very intriguing Light Heavyweight matchup, former champion Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal will face off against undefeated submission phenom Roger Gracie. Lawal is clearly the more complete Mixed Martial Artist of the two, but Gracie is perhaps the most decorated submission grappler ever to compete in Mixed Martial Arts. Lawal is an accomplished wrestler, and vastly more effective in the standup, but if he gives up a single takedown to Gracie he is going to find himself in a lot of trouble, so this is the kind of fight where you don’t want to miss a second of the action.
Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal started his career on a seven-fight winning streak before having his undefeated record and his title both taken by Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante in his last fight. Lawal is a heavy-handed and aggressive boxer with very good wrestling and ground and pound. He is very good at securing takedowns, but he had some serious problems holding Cavalcante down and keeping him from escaping. Still, he is a dangerous fighter from top position with very powerful ground and pound. Against Gracie he would be pretty foolish to go for takedowns, because Gracie is lethal on the ground. King Mo will enjoy a huge advantage in striking technique and punching power, so as long as he concentrates on using his wrestling defensively and keeping this fight standing as much as possible.
Roger Gracie is easily one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the world. He is a long way from having a complete game, though, especially in terms of his striking technique. He once famously quipped, “If I ever knock someone out, it will be on accident.” Gracie sticks to what he knows, and what he knows is takedowns and submissions. Lawal is almost definitely the better wrestler, but he is not going to work well off his back at all, so Gracie might only need one takedown to win this. Gracie’s ability to work off his back is also going to confound Lawal, who has never had to deal with anything like Gracie’s submissions.
I think Gracie is going to be very difficult to deal with. His submissions, sweeps, and escapes are just insane, and Lawal is a guy most comfortable working on the ground from top position. I think Lawal will try to make this a standup fight, and eventually Gracie will find a way to trip him or take him down. On the ground, with Lawal on his back, Gracie will easily overwhelm him. Gracie by submission.
Prediction: Roger Gracie via first round rear naked choke.
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