Strikeforce Middleweight bout: Tim Kennedy vs. Robbie Lawler
Odds: (-280 Kennedy /+220 Lawler )
Betting Pick: Kennedy
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In what has the makings of an epic Middleweight showdown, well-rounded combat veteran Tim Kennedy will square off against heavy-handed striker “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. Kennedy is extremely versatile, with good striking, excellent submissions, and solid wrestling, but Lawler is one of the most formidable punchers in the Middleweight division, so Kennedy is going to have to fight carefully and work his gameplan to perfection. Kennedy definitely has all the tools necessary to ground Lawler and work him over with ground and pound and submission attempts, but Lawler has the kind of power that can turn a fight around with one shot, so this is a very compelling matchup.
Tim Kennedy is an extremely dynamic and versatile fighter who can get the job done both standing and on the ground. He isn’t the world’s best striker, but his technique is solid and he has a decent amount of knockout power. His wrestling and grappling are both very effective, and he can punish opponents on the ground with strikes or with submissions. He is a very aggressive fighter who has only won by decision once, and is notoriously difficult to finish. Against Lawler, it would be foolish of him to stand and try to box any more than he absolutely has to, so expect him to start looking for takedowns from the opening bell. On the ground he will control position easily, bruise Lawler up, and quite likely submit him as long as he can set up his takedowns without eating one of Lawler’s insane power punches.
Robbie Lawler is a long-time veteran of the sport with some of the most dangerous striking in the division. He doesn’t have much in the way of offensive grappling at all, but his takedown defense is actually very good and allows him to keep fights standing where he can work his striking game. Lawler’s striking is superlative, with a perfect mixture of speed, technique, accuracy, and devastating power. He is very good at fighting on his feet and quite good at keeping a fight standing, but if his takedown defense fails he is pretty much done for. He can do nothing whatosever off his back, be it sweep, escape, or work for submissions. If he wants to beat Kennedy, he is either going to need to land hard, early, and often, or he is going to need to completely shut down Kennedy’s wrestling.
Robbie Lawler’s striking is so dangerous that it is impossible to ever count him out completely, but I think he is going to have his hands full with Kennedy. Kennedy is clearly going to be outgunned on the feet, but he is a decent striker himself who should be able to keep himself safe long enough to set up takedowns. Once this fight hits the ground, Lawler is done for, and Kennedy will batter him from top position before eventually securing a choke and the submission win.
Prediction: Tim Kennedy via second round rear naked choke.
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