UFC Featherweight bout: Joe Stevenson vs. Javier Vasquez
Odds: (-220 Stevenson +180 Vazquez )
Betting Pick: Stevenson
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In the opening bout of the evening, Ultimate Fighter Season 2 winner Joe “Daddy” Stevenson will square off against WEC veteran Javier Vasquez. This fight marks Stevenson’s debut at 145 pounds after a long career of fighting at 170 and 155. Stevenson is a very effective grappler with good submissions, takedowns, and ground and pounds, but Vasquez is a very dangerous ground fighter as well and will enjoy a reach advantage on the feet, so this should be a competitive Featherweight debut for Stevenson.
Javier “Showtime” Vasquez, a veteran of Elite XC, Shooto, King of the Cage, and most recently WEC, is a very tough grappler with great submissions who has never been finished in his professional career. While his results were not stellar in WEC, going 2-3 in his last five fights, he is still a threat in any fight that goes to the ground. His striking is not particularly effective or powerful, but neither is Stevenson’s so that shouldn’t be too much of an impediment in this fight. What Vasquez is going to have to find a way to deal with is Stevenson’s superior wrestling and positioning. He has the skills to work off his back, but Stevenson has great jiu-jitsu as well, and Vasquez is going to need to find a way to sweep or escape to control position and score points.
Joe “Daddy” Stevenson has been fighting as a professional since he was a teenager, when his mom had to drive him to his fights. Stevenson is a very effective wrestler with good submissions and excellent submission defense. His boxing is actually technically solid, but his lack of reach really hampers his effectiveness. Still, he isn’t totally lost on the feet, and he has more than enough skill to get a little work done and set up his takedowns. On the ground is clearly where he shines, as he is hard to overcome, great at submitting opponents, and can dole out some serious punishment from top position.
I think that this is a horrible style matchup for Vasquez. On the feet, he will have a reach advantage that should help him stay in this one, but Stevenson is the more skilled striker. More importantly, though, Stevenson has the tools to force this fight to the ground whenever he wants, and Vasquez does not. Vasquez is a great grappler, but Stevenson is notoriously difficult to submit and will enjoy a positional advantage pretty much every time this fight goes to the ground. I expect Stevenson to outbox, outwrestle, and outgrapple Vasquez, brusing him up with ground and pound for a unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: Joe Stevenson via Unanimous Decision.
